Track Record

Judge the model by its ledger

Every official pick is written to the publication ledger before kickoff, at the price it was struck, and settled in public against a final score. This page reads that ledger and nothing else. Where a number is not known it says so — a figure we could not measure is never shown as a zero.

The official ledger holds 366 publications spanning 7 days — from 3 Aug 2026 to 9 Aug 2026. Longer periods are offered because the record is meant to grow into them; until it does, they report how much of themselves the ledger actually covers instead of showing a zero.

Period

Year to date

Every published pick

2026-01-01 to today 2026-10-20 in Africa/Lagos. The year is still running.

This period is only partly inside the ledger, which runs 2026-08-03 to 2026-08-09. Days outside that range hold no publications because none were made, not because none won.

Official public picks

The only record that counts publicly

Published366

Settled125

Pending241

Won51

Lost72

Push0

Void2

Hit rate41.5%

Profit+21.40u

ROI / yield+17.4%

Average odds3.59

Average closeNot available

Closing coverage0.0%

Average CLVNot available

Current streak1 win

Current drawdown+5.00u

Max drawdown+9.43u

95% Wilson interval on the hit rate: 33.1% to 50.3%. The interval, not the point estimate, is the honest width of what 123 settled picks can tell you.

Closing prices are held for 0 of 366 publications in this view. Average closing odds and CLV are computed over those rows only and are reported as not available when there are none — a closing-line value of zero would be a claim about the model rather than about our data.

Last settlement: 9 Aug 2026, 03:15.

Hit rate, profit, yield, CLV and drawdown judge a selection at its price. Brier score and calibration judge the probability. They answer different questions and are never combined into one headline.

Forecast quality

How good the probabilities were

Calibration & analytics

Brier score0.2415

Log loss0.6773

Calibration error0.0519

Brier skill0.0050

These score the probability, not the bet. A well-calibrated model can still lose money at bad prices, and a profitable one can be badly calibrated. Combining the two into a single "accuracy" figure is the most common way this industry misleads.

Filters

Slice the record, and share the slice

SportCompetitionMarket familySelection typeModel versionCalibration versionDecision tierOdds bandProbability bandData readinessPublication lead timeResult state

No filters applied. Every official publication in this period is included in the summary, the table and the exports alike.

Filters apply identically to the summary above, the table below and both exports. The result is a URL: send it and the recipient sees exactly what you saw.

The record

Every publication in this view

366 publications match this view. Showing 50 of them, newest publication first.
Published	Fixture	Market & selection	Odds	Model	Close	Result	Return	Provenance	Links
9 Aug 2026, 06:10 Kickoff 10 Aug 2026, 16:30	Rafael Jodar v Arthur Fils tennis · ATP Canadian Open	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	1.95 1.50–1.99	52.1% Fair 1.92	— CLV —	Pending	—	tennis-surface-elo-v5 cal tennis-surface-elo-v5 As published	Match Receipt 5510ccd6-0dfe-486d-8d9c-695e70c42662
9 Aug 2026, 06:10 Kickoff 11 Aug 2026, 19:00	Ekaterina Alexandrova v Elina Svitolina tennis · WTA Canadian Open	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.30 3.00–4.99	45.6% Fair 2.19	— CLV —	Pending	—	tennis-surface-elo-v5 cal tennis-surface-elo-v5 As published	Match Receipt 2bc8bf58-1afa-4d34-9f09-68f54effd725
9 Aug 2026, 03:10 Kickoff 10 Aug 2026, 18:00	Jong PSV U21 v FC Volendam football · Eerste Divisie	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.58 3.00–4.99	28.4% Fair 3.52	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 6ca298f0-aca2-4254-9d2d-f1d173e9cc55
9 Aug 2026, 03:10 Kickoff 9 Aug 2026, 14:00	Raelingen v Råde football · 3. Division - Girone 6	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	5.95 5.00+	24.4% Fair 4.11	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt b5ea3877-6f27-47ac-bb9c-f15852a0ab82
9 Aug 2026, 03:10 Kickoff 11 Aug 2026, 14:00	Luciano Darderi v Brandon Nakashima tennis · ATP Canadian Open	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.00 3.00–4.99	35.8% Fair 2.79	— CLV —	Pending	—	tennis-surface-elo-v5 cal tennis-surface-elo-v5 As published	Match Receipt c88f632a-0d2a-42a8-bd6b-9b9c05e09e0c
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 14:00	Charlton Athletic v Derby County football · Championship	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	2.74 2.00–2.99	37.0% Fair 2.71	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 7b22ce8a-052d-446e-bf70-69d12f6321f0
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 11:30	Newport County v Rochdale football · League 2	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.05 3.00–4.99	31.8% Fair 3.14	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 44771a28-40fe-47d6-a3d3-adf4578ed653
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 15:00	Slovácko v Sigma Olomouc football · Czech Liga	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	2.85 2.00–2.99	34.0% Fair 2.94	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt d1d04428-ff2e-430d-bf34-f458ae340423
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 09:00	Kashima v Nagoya Grampus football · J1 League	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	4.75 3.00–4.99	20.4% Fair 4.91	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt c1326e45-f4e9-4708-8d33-51ab1e7079ef
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 14 Aug 2026, 18:45	Nancy v Montpellier football · Ligue 2 - France	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.10 3.00–4.99	32.1% Fair 3.12	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 91b49269-f40f-4562-a045-c27a518429b9
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 13:00	GIF Sundsvall v Helsingborgs IF football · Superettan - Sweden	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.20 3.00–4.99	29.5% Fair 3.39	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 979a30d4-9af3-4719-8609-d651acd8975c
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 14:00	Chesterfield FC v Fleetwood Town football · League 2	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	4.33 3.00–4.99	23.0% Fair 4.35	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 08b8db7e-e310-4139-aa21-a1055b5b2744
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 14 Aug 2026, 14:00	FC Orenburg v Lokomotiv football · Premier League	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.32 3.00–4.99	31.0% Fair 3.23	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt ed6f00c1-d772-48f7-86a3-9c64a6a4c558
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 22:00	Belgrano Cordoba v Independ. Rivadavia football · Liga Profesional Argentina	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	4.00 3.00–4.99	23.9% Fair 4.19	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 458907ca-db0e-4dd0-b959-4aafe6f9bfb0
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 11:30	Notts County v Leicester City football · League 1	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.80 3.00–4.99	28.2% Fair 3.54	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 409a0aec-6695-40b8-873f-f1377791d587
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 23:30	Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls football · Major League Soccer	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	3.80 3.00–4.99	26.8% Fair 3.73	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 25533fd3-439a-43bc-be9a-43b47293864b
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 10:00	JEF United Chiba v Machida Zelvia football · J1 League	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.60 3.00–4.99	26.8% Fair 3.73	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt db69dacb-01cc-4794-b29d-6c0f0a98c40b
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 18:45	Genk v KVC Westerlo football · Jupiler Pro League	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	4.60 3.00–4.99	21.3% Fair 4.70	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 0e1ba4d4-fbed-470d-a6a5-68fa3964e2c1
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 10:00	Urawa v Sanfrecce Hiroshima football · J1 League	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.90 3.00–4.99	25.6% Fair 3.90	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 7937b62e-226e-4abb-952d-fcd8d9686619
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 15:00	Sandvikens IF v IFK Norrkoping football · Superettan - Sweden	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.50 3.00–4.99	27.5% Fair 3.64	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt bb6a4841-6b79-499c-b58f-8963c5fca03e
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 11:30	Reading v Luton football · League 1	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.25 3.00–4.99	32.2% Fair 3.10	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 333e17d9-451f-443d-bd64-374ce3ff08aa
9 Aug 2026, 02:10 Kickoff 15 Aug 2026, 13:30	Pogoń Siedlce v Polonia Warszawa football · I Liga	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	4.66 3.00–4.99	22.4% Fair 4.47	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt b8f00bb2-41e5-4e16-bdaf-b1df893cfa35
9 Aug 2026, 01:10 Kickoff 10 Aug 2026, 23:00	Anápolis v Guarani Campinas football · Serie C	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.15 3.00–4.99	32.1% Fair 3.11	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 6b6d7f0d-4437-473c-a23d-c8fb93a3f718
9 Aug 2026, 01:10 Kickoff 10 Aug 2026, 16:00	Flora II v Nõmme Kalju II football · Esiliiga A	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	4.60 3.00–4.99	22.7% Fair 4.41	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 978b60bd-d460-4ef4-901a-8472bdad6e0d
9 Aug 2026, 01:10 Kickoff 11 Aug 2026, 18:15	Slovan Bratislava v Mjallby AIF football · UEFA Champions League	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	4.10 3.00–4.99	24.6% Fair 4.07	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 58fae031-832a-42b8-a219-f5deb6239453
9 Aug 2026, 01:10 Kickoff 10 Aug 2026, 17:00	Moss v ODD Ballklubb football · 1. Division	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.08 3.00–4.99	32.6% Fair 3.07	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 4d105b43-ae39-4d22-a7d3-52de883531c8
9 Aug 2026, 01:10 Kickoff 11 Aug 2026, 18:30	SK Sturm Graz v Fenerbahce football · UEFA Champions League Qualification	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	4.00 3.00–4.99	26.1% Fair 3.84	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt a532a8a1-c4ea-425d-a946-21158ab56668
9 Aug 2026, 01:10 Kickoff 11 Aug 2026, 19:00	Diana Shnaider v Iga Swiatek tennis · WTA Canadian Open	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.50 3.00–4.99	34.9% Fair 2.86	— CLV —	Pending	—	tennis-surface-elo-v5 cal tennis-surface-elo-v5 As published	Match Receipt c23b3d77-1789-4902-ac07-6a5cb6597d24
8 Aug 2026, 19:10 Kickoff 9 Aug 2026, 01:00	Guadalajara v FC Dallas football · Leagues Cup	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	5.10 5.00+	21.1% Fair 4.74	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 252a0047-7427-421a-94a6-bd5577948cc3
8 Aug 2026, 18:10 Kickoff 8 Aug 2026, 19:00	Huachipato v Everton de Viña del Mar football · Primera División - Chile	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.15 3.00–4.99	33.1% Fair 3.03	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt d47f2b80-7696-4f8b-ba73-60d86285290d
8 Aug 2026, 17:10 Kickoff 8 Aug 2026, 21:30	Botafogo-SP v América Mineiro football · Brazil Série B	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	4.90 3.00–4.99	21.9% Fair 4.57	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt f8081a1b-2685-43d3-b670-ee49ee77e9ed
8 Aug 2026, 15:10 Kickoff 8 Aug 2026, 17:30	Hartberg v Sturm Graz football · Austrian Football Bundesliga	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	5.30 5.00+	21.7% Fair 4.60	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt d875dce4-ba58-46a5-be0f-7e947021be87
8 Aug 2026, 14:11 Kickoff 8 Aug 2026, 21:30	Remo v Atletico Mineiro football · Brazil Série A	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.05 3.00–4.99	33.5% Fair 2.98	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 67406dd5-e884-43df-bbfa-b5dfc478d2f3
8 Aug 2026, 14:11 Kickoff 10 Aug 2026, 19:15	Fram Reykjavik v KR Reykjavik football · Úrvalsdeild	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	2.66 2.00–2.99	37.2% Fair 2.69	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt ec70a8b0-32ae-4543-a715-6f58d3fd1b75
8 Aug 2026, 14:11 Kickoff 10 Aug 2026, 00:00	Guayaquil City FC v Emelec football · Liga Pro	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.10 3.00–4.99	32.6% Fair 3.06	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt e0318e91-4d8b-489e-94bf-d1b26b9c3507
8 Aug 2026, 14:11 Kickoff 8 Aug 2026, 18:45	Westerlo v Union Saint-Gilloise football · Belgium First Div	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	5.30 5.00+	21.1% Fair 4.74	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 75b97de4-5700-4e0b-a5dd-5a5a5257908e
8 Aug 2026, 13:11 Kickoff 10 Aug 2026, 02:00	San Diego FC v Tijuana football · Leagues Cup	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	3.80 3.00–4.99	25.1% Fair 3.99	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt e5bc59a5-9fc3-4c55-8258-1f3ec383a284
8 Aug 2026, 13:11 Kickoff 9 Aug 2026, 23:30	Philadelphia Union v Necaxa football · Leagues Cup	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	4.20 3.00–4.99	23.8% Fair 4.21	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt fa16a9d6-8ddb-486e-9188-6ac5a4dbea91
8 Aug 2026, 11:11 Kickoff 9 Aug 2026, 20:45	Defensa Y Justicia v Newells Old Boys football · Liga Profesional Argentina	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	3.60 3.00–4.99	28.1% Fair 3.56	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 9083e1e9-2c78-47e3-ad08-2c0690379ac4
8 Aug 2026, 11:11 Kickoff 10 Aug 2026, 00:00	Chicago Fire v Santos Laguna football · Leagues Cup	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	3.85 3.00–4.99	24.0% Fair 4.17	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 548695df-eecb-499a-820e-6d81c518d128
8 Aug 2026, 11:11 Kickoff 10 Aug 2026, 00:00	Nashville SC v Atlético San Luis football · Leagues Cup	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	4.00 3.00–4.99	24.2% Fair 4.14	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 3f5f4d8b-673e-43bb-ad0a-2c35daf3bb10
8 Aug 2026, 11:11 Kickoff 10 Aug 2026, 01:00	Austin FC v Puebla football · Leagues Cup	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	4.00 3.00–4.99	24.3% Fair 4.11	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt f7502b66-7782-4501-b5be-a703184967e3
8 Aug 2026, 09:11 Kickoff 9 Aug 2026, 11:00	Eik-Tønsberg v Træff football · 2. Division - Group 1	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.20 3.00–4.99	30.7% Fair 3.26	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 5a2a1b17-ddff-40ef-9f3b-2c35c67d0070
8 Aug 2026, 09:11 Kickoff 9 Aug 2026, 02:00	Orange County SC v Tampa Bay Rowdies football · USL Championship	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	4.21 3.00–4.99	24.3% Fair 4.11	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt ba4095e7-e4da-406a-b1a4-19d4d72cffab
8 Aug 2026, 08:10 Kickoff 8 Aug 2026, 11:00	FC Anyang v Daejeon Citizen football · K League 1	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.40 3.00–4.99	32.0% Fair 3.13	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt e1497dfc-979a-4b36-9b76-9e598a681021
8 Aug 2026, 08:10 Kickoff 9 Aug 2026, 16:30	Learner Tien v Thiago Agustin Tirante tennis · ATP Canadian Open	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	3.50 3.00–4.99	39.1% Fair 2.56	— CLV —	Pending	—	tennis-surface-elo-v5 cal tennis-surface-elo-v5 As published	Match Receipt bb1fea55-5cba-4cc0-82f1-bb23da89b52e
8 Aug 2026, 08:10 Kickoff 9 Aug 2026, 16:30	Joao Fonseca v Ben Shelton tennis · ATP Canadian Open	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	1.81 1.50–1.99	66.5% Fair 1.50	— CLV —	Pending	—	tennis-surface-elo-v5 cal tennis-surface-elo-v5 As published	Match Receipt e5be0861-1042-43ed-8a70-726c675cad61
8 Aug 2026, 07:11 Kickoff 10 Aug 2026, 17:00	Unia Skierniewice v Arka Gdynia football · I Liga	match_winner / home match winner · Match result	3.17 3.00–4.99	31.4% Fair 3.18	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt 8f0d6f7a-19b2-448e-bb65-9a50f116499f
8 Aug 2026, 07:11 Kickoff 10 Aug 2026, 19:15	Santa Clara v Nacional football · Primeira Liga - Portugal	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	4.60 3.00–4.99	23.5% Fair 4.25	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt e30cde0c-04d1-4c77-a808-d5c5f796e3d3
8 Aug 2026, 06:10 Kickoff 9 Aug 2026, 20:45	Gimnasia L.P. v Barracas Central football · Liga Profesional Argentina	match_winner / away match winner · Match result	5.40 5.00+	20.1% Fair 4.97	— CLV —	Pending	—	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt d2e5731f-9886-4962-8886-2fdd88ee6084

Rafael Jodar v Arthur FilsPending
tennis · ATP Canadian Open · 9 Aug 2026, 06:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
1.95
Model
52.1%
Fair
1.92
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
tennis-surface-elo-v5 · calibration tennis-surface-elo-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Ekaterina Alexandrova v Elina SvitolinaPending
tennis · WTA Canadian Open · 9 Aug 2026, 06:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.30
Model
45.6%
Fair
2.19
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
tennis-surface-elo-v5 · calibration tennis-surface-elo-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Jong PSV U21 v FC VolendamPending
football · Eerste Divisie · 9 Aug 2026, 03:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.58
Model
28.4%
Fair
3.52
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Raelingen v RådePending
football · 3. Division - Girone 6 · 9 Aug 2026, 03:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
5.95
Model
24.4%
Fair
4.11
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Luciano Darderi v Brandon NakashimaPending
tennis · ATP Canadian Open · 9 Aug 2026, 03:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.00
Model
35.8%
Fair
2.79
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
tennis-surface-elo-v5 · calibration tennis-surface-elo-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Charlton Athletic v Derby CountyPending
football · Championship · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
2.74
Model
37.0%
Fair
2.71
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Newport County v RochdalePending
football · League 2 · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.05
Model
31.8%
Fair
3.14
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Slovácko v Sigma OlomoucPending
football · Czech Liga · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
2.85
Model
34.0%
Fair
2.94
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Kashima v Nagoya GrampusPending
football · J1 League · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
4.75
Model
20.4%
Fair
4.91
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Nancy v MontpellierPending
football · Ligue 2 - France · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.10
Model
32.1%
Fair
3.12
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
GIF Sundsvall v Helsingborgs IFPending
football · Superettan - Sweden · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.20
Model
29.5%
Fair
3.39
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Chesterfield FC v Fleetwood TownPending
football · League 2 · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
4.33
Model
23.0%
Fair
4.35
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
FC Orenburg v LokomotivPending
football · Premier League · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.32
Model
31.0%
Fair
3.23
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Belgrano Cordoba v Independ. RivadaviaPending
football · Liga Profesional Argentina · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
4.00
Model
23.9%
Fair
4.19
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Notts County v Leicester CityPending
football · League 1 · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.80
Model
28.2%
Fair
3.54
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Atlanta United FC v New York Red BullsPending
football · Major League Soccer · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
3.80
Model
26.8%
Fair
3.73
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
JEF United Chiba v Machida ZelviaPending
football · J1 League · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.60
Model
26.8%
Fair
3.73
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Genk v KVC WesterloPending
football · Jupiler Pro League · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
4.60
Model
21.3%
Fair
4.70
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Urawa v Sanfrecce HiroshimaPending
football · J1 League · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.90
Model
25.6%
Fair
3.90
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Sandvikens IF v IFK NorrkopingPending
football · Superettan - Sweden · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.50
Model
27.5%
Fair
3.64
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Reading v LutonPending
football · League 1 · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.25
Model
32.2%
Fair
3.10
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Pogoń Siedlce v Polonia WarszawaPending
football · I Liga · 9 Aug 2026, 02:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
4.66
Model
22.4%
Fair
4.47
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Anápolis v Guarani CampinasPending
football · Serie C · 9 Aug 2026, 01:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.15
Model
32.1%
Fair
3.11
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Flora II v Nõmme Kalju IIPending
football · Esiliiga A · 9 Aug 2026, 01:10
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
4.60
Model
22.7%
Fair
4.41
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Slovan Bratislava v Mjallby AIFPending
football · UEFA Champions League · 9 Aug 2026, 01:10
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
4.10
Model
24.6%
Fair
4.07
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Moss v ODD BallklubbPending
football · 1. Division · 9 Aug 2026, 01:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.08
Model
32.6%
Fair
3.07
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
SK Sturm Graz v FenerbahcePending
football · UEFA Champions League Qualification · 9 Aug 2026, 01:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
4.00
Model
26.1%
Fair
3.84
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Diana Shnaider v Iga SwiatekPending
tennis · WTA Canadian Open · 9 Aug 2026, 01:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.50
Model
34.9%
Fair
2.86
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
tennis-surface-elo-v5 · calibration tennis-surface-elo-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Guadalajara v FC DallasPending
football · Leagues Cup · 8 Aug 2026, 19:10
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
5.10
Model
21.1%
Fair
4.74
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Huachipato v Everton de Viña del MarPending
football · Primera División - Chile · 8 Aug 2026, 18:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.15
Model
33.1%
Fair
3.03
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Botafogo-SP v América MineiroPending
football · Brazil Série B · 8 Aug 2026, 17:10
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
4.90
Model
21.9%
Fair
4.57
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Hartberg v Sturm GrazPending
football · Austrian Football Bundesliga · 8 Aug 2026, 15:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
5.30
Model
21.7%
Fair
4.60
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Remo v Atletico MineiroPending
football · Brazil Série A · 8 Aug 2026, 14:11
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.05
Model
33.5%
Fair
2.98
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Fram Reykjavik v KR ReykjavikPending
football · Úrvalsdeild · 8 Aug 2026, 14:11
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
2.66
Model
37.2%
Fair
2.69
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Guayaquil City FC v EmelecPending
football · Liga Pro · 8 Aug 2026, 14:11
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.10
Model
32.6%
Fair
3.06
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Westerlo v Union Saint-GilloisePending
football · Belgium First Div · 8 Aug 2026, 14:11
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
5.30
Model
21.1%
Fair
4.74
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
San Diego FC v TijuanaPending
football · Leagues Cup · 8 Aug 2026, 13:11
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
3.80
Model
25.1%
Fair
3.99
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Philadelphia Union v NecaxaPending
football · Leagues Cup · 8 Aug 2026, 13:11
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
4.20
Model
23.8%
Fair
4.21
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Defensa Y Justicia v Newells Old BoysPending
football · Liga Profesional Argentina · 8 Aug 2026, 11:11
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
3.60
Model
28.1%
Fair
3.56
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Chicago Fire v Santos LagunaPending
football · Leagues Cup · 8 Aug 2026, 11:11
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
3.85
Model
24.0%
Fair
4.17
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Nashville SC v Atlético San LuisPending
football · Leagues Cup · 8 Aug 2026, 11:11
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
4.00
Model
24.2%
Fair
4.14
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Austin FC v PueblaPending
football · Leagues Cup · 8 Aug 2026, 11:11
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
4.00
Model
24.3%
Fair
4.11
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Eik-Tønsberg v TræffPending
football · 2. Division - Group 1 · 8 Aug 2026, 09:11
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.20
Model
30.7%
Fair
3.26
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Orange County SC v Tampa Bay RowdiesPending
football · USL Championship · 8 Aug 2026, 09:11
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
4.21
Model
24.3%
Fair
4.11
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
FC Anyang v Daejeon CitizenPending
football · K League 1 · 8 Aug 2026, 08:10
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.40
Model
32.0%
Fair
3.13
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Learner Tien v Thiago Agustin TirantePending
tennis · ATP Canadian Open · 8 Aug 2026, 08:10
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
3.50
Model
39.1%
Fair
2.56
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
tennis-surface-elo-v5 · calibration tennis-surface-elo-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Joao Fonseca v Ben SheltonPending
tennis · ATP Canadian Open · 8 Aug 2026, 08:10
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
1.81
Model
66.5%
Fair
1.50
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
tennis-surface-elo-v5 · calibration tennis-surface-elo-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Unia Skierniewice v Arka GdyniaPending
football · I Liga · 8 Aug 2026, 07:11
match_winner / home match winner
Odds
3.17
Model
31.4%
Fair
3.18
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Santa Clara v NacionalPending
football · Primeira Liga - Portugal · 8 Aug 2026, 07:11
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
4.60
Model
23.5%
Fair
4.25
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt
Gimnasia L.P. v Barracas CentralPending
football · Liga Profesional Argentina · 8 Aug 2026, 06:10
match_winner / away match winner
Odds
5.40
Model
20.1%
Fair
4.97
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
—
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt

Download CSV Download JSON Printable view

Each export carries this view's period, timezone, active filters and read availability, plus a definition for every metric and band it contains. No filters applied; every official publication in the period is included.

What every number on this page means

Metric definitions. The same list is written into every export.
Metric	Definition
Published	Official public picks published in the period. Retracted claims are counted here and excluded from every other figure.
Settled	Publications that have reached a terminal state: won, lost, push, void or cancelled.
Pending	Publications with no verdict yet — unsettled, or awaiting verification.
Won	Settled correct at the published price.
Lost	Settled incorrect. One unit staked, one unit lost.
Push	The market returned the stake. Not a win and not a loss; excluded from the hit-rate denominator.
Void	The market never resolved. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator.
Cancelled	The fixture was called off. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator.
Decided	Won plus lost. The denominator for hit rate, profit and yield.
Profit (units)	One unit staked per decided pick at the price recorded at publication. A win returns the price minus the stake; a loss costs one unit. Pushes and voids contribute nothing.
ROI / yield	Profit in units divided by decided picks — return per unit staked, not return on a bankroll.
Hit rate	Won divided by decided. Pushes, voids, cancellations and pending picks are not in the denominator.
Hit-rate interval	95% Wilson score interval around the hit rate. Wilson rather than the normal approximation because at small samples the normal interval can exceed 0–100% and collapses to zero width at 0% or 100%.
Average published odds	Mean decimal price at the moment of publication, across every publication in the view.
Average closing odds	Mean decimal closing price, across only those publications that carry one. Read the coverage figure beside it before quoting this.
Closing-line coverage	Share of publications in the view that carry a closing price at all. A coverage of 0% is a measurement about our data; it is not a statement about the model.
Average CLV	Mean of (published odds / closing odds − 1) over publications that carry a closing price. Positive means the published price was better than the close.
Current streak	The trailing run of identical verdicts, ordered by settlement time.
Current drawdown (units)	Units below the highest cumulative profit reached so far, in publication order.
Maximum drawdown (units)	The largest peak-to-trough fall in cumulative profit, in publication order.
Last settlement	The most recent settlement timestamp in the view.
Brier score	Mean squared error of the model probability against the outcome. Lower is better. A forecast metric: it judges the probability, not the price.
Log loss	Mean negative log likelihood of the outcome under the model probability, clamped so a confident miss is expensive but finite.
Expected calibration error	Weighted mean gap between predicted and observed frequency across probability buckets. Withheld below 50 settled events.
Brier skill	Improvement in Brier score against always predicting the base rate. Positive means better than guessing the average.
Fair odds	1 divided by the model probability — the price at which the model is indifferent. Not a price anyone offered.
Unit return	The one-unit profit of a single row. Empty for pending, push, void and cancelled rows.
Correction state	Whether the claim still stands as first published, has been corrected forward, or has been retracted. Retracted claims score in neither direction.
Publication lead time	Hours between publication and kickoff. Every publication is written before kickoff; the ledger refuses any that is not.

Band definitions, for every filter that groups a continuous value.
Dimension	Band	Definition
Market family	Match result	Which side wins, including the draw where the sport has one (1X2, moneyline, match winner).
Market family	Double chance	Two of the three match-result outcomes taken together.
Market family	Totals	Combined score over or under a line (over/under, totals, goals lines).
Market family	Both teams to score	Whether both sides score at least once.
Market family	Handicap	A side with a goal, point or game start applied (handicap, spread, Asian handicap).
Market family	Other markets	Every market that does not fall into one of the named families above.
Selection type	Home	The home side, or the first-named player.
Selection type	Away	The away side, or the second-named player.
Selection type	Draw	The match ends level.
Selection type	Over	The total finishes above the line.
Selection type	Under	The total finishes below the line.
Selection type	Yes	The named event happens.
Selection type	No	The named event does not happen.
Selection type	Other	Any selection that is not one of the standard sides, totals or yes/no outcomes.
Odds band	Under 1.50	Odds at publication below 1.50.
Odds band	1.50–1.99	Odds at publication from 1.50 up to but not including 2.00.
Odds band	2.00–2.99	Odds at publication from 2.00 up to but not including 3.00.
Odds band	3.00–4.99	Odds at publication from 3.00 up to but not including 5.00.
Odds band	5.00+	Odds at publication from 5.00 up to but not including any higher price.
Probability band	Under 40%	Model probability below 0.40.
Probability band	40–49%	Model probability from 0.40 up to but not including 0.50.
Probability band	50–59%	Model probability from 0.50 up to but not including 0.60.
Probability band	60–69%	Model probability from 0.60 up to but not including 0.70.
Probability band	70% and above	Model probability of 0.70 or higher.
Decision tier	Pick	Cleared every gate; published as a selection.
Decision tier	Lean	The model favoured a side below the publication bar.
Decision tier	Watch	Tracked interest that had not cleared publication.
Decision tier	Pass	Analysed and declined.
Decision tier	Withheld	A decision existed but the evidence bar was not met.
Decision tier	Unavailable	No decision could be formed from the available data.
Data readiness	Complete	Every evidence input the decision policy asks for was present.
Data readiness	Partial	Some evidence was missing; the decision was made on what was there.
Data readiness	Stale	The evidence or price behind the claim had aged past its freshness bar.
Data readiness	Unavailable	Evidence could not be read at decision time.
Data readiness	Confirmed empty	The evidence source was readable and genuinely held nothing.
Publication lead time	Under 2 hours	Published less than two hours before kickoff.
Publication lead time	2–6 hours	Published two to six hours before kickoff.
Publication lead time	6–24 hours	Published six to twenty-four hours before kickoff.
Publication lead time	Over 24 hours	Published more than a day before kickoff.
Result state	Won	The selection was correct at the published price.
Result state	Lost	The selection was incorrect. One unit staked, one unit lost.
Result state	Push	The market returned the stake. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator.
Result state	Void	The market never resolved. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator.
Result state	Cancelled	The fixture was called off. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator.
Result state	Pending	No verdict yet — either unsettled or awaiting verification.
Result state	Any settled	Every claim that has reached a terminal state, whatever the verdict.

Evidence classes

What counts, and what never does

Official public picksThe published ledger. The only class in OddsPadi's public record.Written to op_publications before kickoff, priced at the moment of publication, and settled against a final score. Every number in the summary above comes from this class and from nothing else.Every published pick

Kept separate, and why

Verified legacy official picksPre-ledger picks that could be re-verified against a stored fixture and price.The 2026-07-31 reconciliation found nothing in the product's history that met the bar: no pre-ledger row carried a server-generated publication time, so none could be shown to have been published before kickoff. This class therefore holds zero rows, and it exists to say that out loud rather than to leave a reader wondering what happened before the ledger.
Internal decisionsEvery call the engine grades, published or not. Training evidence, never public performance.Counted once per decision, not once per bookmaker price. The internal record is what tells us whether the model is improving; it is not a record of anything we asked anyone to act on.Engine status
Editorial archiveSomething an article said. Never a pick.Articles cite publication ids and re-resolve them at render, so a corrected or retracted claim cannot keep being repeated by a story written before the correction. An observation in an article is not itself a claim on the record.News archive
Shadow decisionsPaper-mode runs of candidate models. Shown in the internal record, never counted in the official one.A candidate model runs alongside the live one without publishing anything. Its results are how a challenger earns promotion. A schema allowlist makes it impossible for one of these rows to reach the publication ledger.Calibration & analytics
BacktestsHistorical replays on the corpus. Never live performance.A replay knows how the season ended. However carefully it is constructed, it is a statement about a model fitted to history, and presenting it next to live results would flatter the live results.Calibration & analytics
Community selectionsMembers' own tips, with their own leaderboard. Never OddsPadi's record.Stored in different tables with a different settlement path. A member's good week is theirs, and so is a bad one.Community leaderboard

These are never aggregated into one number. Mixing them is how a paper trade becomes a claimed win.

Yesterday

Internal model record

Current published selections

Yesterday's grading has not landed yet — the settlement sweep runs hourly. The full ledger has the complete history.

Internal record: every decision the engine grades against final scores, published or not — counted once per decision, not once per bookmaker price. It is training evidence and it is not part of the official record above. Published picks are the subset that cleared all gates.

Road to publication

The seven promotion gates, live

Engine status

6 of 7 gates passing on 845 settled outcomes. Publication opens when all 7 hold — no gate is ever lowered to make picks appear.

Settled outcomes845 ≥ 30
Passing
Brier score0.1924 ≤ 0.25
Passing
Brier skill vs base rate+0.1623 ≥ 0
Passing
Log loss0.5660 ≤ ln 2
Passing
Calibration error (ECE)0.0440 ≤ 0.1
Passing
Closing-line coverage21.2% ≥ 80%
Not yet
Average closing-line value+1.6045 ≥ 0
Passing

Methodology

How this record stays honest

A publication cannot be created at or after kickoff. The database refuses it, so a pick recorded after the event is not merely discouraged — it is impossible.
A published claim cannot be edited in place. Corrections append a revision holding the verbatim prior state, and every one of them is visible on the claim's receipt.
Settlement uses the odds recorded when the claim was published, never a later price. Push, void and cancelled are distinct from a loss and stay out of the hit-rate denominator.
A retracted claim scores in neither direction, and stays on the record so the retraction itself is auditable.
Where the ledger cannot be read, this page says so. It does not fall back to another table, and it does not render a zero.

Every figure above comes from the official published-pick ledger: the exact claim, price and timestamp of each pick, and everything that has happened to it since. Nothing is estimated or back-filled.

Play it smart, padi: good analysis helps you decide better, but no analysis removes risk. OddsPadi presents probabilities rather than certainty, doesn't take bets, and doesn't hold your money. If you bet, keep it fun — only stake what you can afford to lose. Limits and support near you.