Upcoming seasons, without fake certainty.
Early forecasts should move when squads and schedules move. Every OddsPadi outlook names its evidence date, missing inputs and next revision trigger.
Premier League returning-team baseline
Returning-team baseline only. Promoted clubs, transfers, injuries, managers, schedule strength and opening prices are not included yet.
- Evidence as of
- 2026-05-24
- Model
- returning-team Monte Carlo baseline v1
- Simulations
- 20,000
- Source
- OddsPadi normalized API-Football standings snapshots
- Season starts
- 2026-08-21
- Confirmed promoted
- Coventry City, Ipswich Town, Hull City
Manchester City
30.4%title baselineManchester United
9%title baselineFull returning-team field
Not a betting market · not final squadsProbability bands
| Baseline rank | Club | 2025 finish | Title | Top four | Median rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1 | 51.6% | 93.2% | 1 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 2 | 30.4% | 85.2% | 2 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 3 | 9% | 58.9% | 4 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 4 | 3.2% | 35.8% | 6 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 5 | 1.8% | 26.2% | 7 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0.9% | 17.7% | 8 |
| 7 | Brentford | 9 | 0.6% | 12.5% | 10 |
| 8 | Brighton | 8 | 0.5% | 12.5% | 9 |
| 9 | Chelsea | 10 | 0.5% | 11.8% | 10 |
| 10 | Sunderland | 7 | 0.5% | 10.4% | 10 |
| 11 | Fulham | 11 | 0.3% | 8.8% | 11 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 12 | 0.2% | 7.1% | 11 |
| 13 | Everton | 13 | 0.2% | 6.4% | 11 |
| 14 | Leeds | 14 | 0.1% | 4.7% | 12 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 16 | 0.1% | 3.7% | 13 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 17 | 0% | 1.9% | 14 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 15 | 0% | 3.1% | 13 |
How to read this: the simulation carries forward 2025 points-per-game and goal-difference strength, then applies season-level volatility. Coventry City, Ipswich Town and Hull City are officially promoted but stay outside this first probability table until calibrated Championship strength is added. Transfers, injuries, managers and opening prices are also pending.
Coverage queue
What updates next
Premier League
Football · 2026/27
Next evidence: Calibrated promoted-team strength, transfers and provider fixture mapCAF Champions League
Football · 2026/27
Next evidence: Confirmed entrants and drawNBA
Basketball · 2026/27
Next evidence: Final rosters and schedule releaseATP / WTA
Tennis · 2026 second half
Next evidence: Tournament fields and active surface keysFixture predictions take over when teams, kickoff times and usable prices are confirmed.
Open today's predictions