OddsPadi official publication ledger

Track record — All time

Every official publication in the ledger, from the first to the most recent.

Generated 19 Oct 2026, 13:30 · Competition: UEFA Europa League · The ledger runs from 2026-08-03 to 2026-08-09 — 7 days.

Published1

Settled1

Pending0

Won0

Lost1

Push0

Void0

Hit rate0.0%

Profit−1.00u

ROI / yield-100.0%

Average odds3.78

Average closeNot available

Closing coverage0.0%

Average CLVNot available

Current streak1 loss

Current drawdown+1.00u

Max drawdown+1.00u

95% Wilson interval on the hit rate: 0.0% to 79.3%. The interval, not the point estimate, is the honest width of what 1 settled pick can tell you.

These figures come from 1 settled pick. That is too small a sample to distinguish skill from variance — treat it as an early record, not a track record.

Closing prices are held for 0 of 1 publication in this view. Average closing odds and CLV are computed over those rows only and are reported as not available when there are none — a closing-line value of zero would be a claim about the model rather than about our data.

Last settlement: 6 Aug 2026, 15:15.

Hit rate, profit, yield, CLV and drawdown judge a selection at its price. Brier score and calibration judge the probability. They answer different questions and are never combined into one headline.

Brier score0.0801

Log loss0.3327

Calibration errorInsufficient sample (1)

Brier skillNot applicable

1 publication match this view. Showing 1 of them, newest publication first.
Published	Fixture	Market & selection	Odds	Model	Close	Result	Return	Provenance	Links
3 Aug 2026, 11:09 Kickoff 5 Aug 2026, 18:15	Ferencvarosi TC v Gornik Zabrze football · UEFA Europa League	match_winner / draw match winner · Match result	3.78 3.00–4.99	28.3% Fair 3.53	— CLV —	Lost 6 Aug 2026, 15:15	−1.00u	football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published	Match Receipt cf508f90-67c7-4977-90f2-0989adc14db1

Ferencvarosi TC v Gornik ZabrzeLost
football · UEFA Europa League · 3 Aug 2026, 11:09
match_winner / draw match winner
Odds
3.78
Model
28.3%
Fair
3.53
Close
—
CLV
—
Return
−1.00u
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
Match Receipt

What every number on this page means

Metric definitions. The same list is written into every export.
Metric	Definition
Published	Official public picks published in the period. Retracted claims are counted here and excluded from every other figure.
Settled	Publications that have reached a terminal state: won, lost, push, void or cancelled.
Pending	Publications with no verdict yet — unsettled, or awaiting verification.
Won	Settled correct at the published price.
Lost	Settled incorrect. One unit staked, one unit lost.
Push	The market returned the stake. Not a win and not a loss; excluded from the hit-rate denominator.
Void	The market never resolved. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator.
Cancelled	The fixture was called off. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator.
Decided	Won plus lost. The denominator for hit rate, profit and yield.
Profit (units)	One unit staked per decided pick at the price recorded at publication. A win returns the price minus the stake; a loss costs one unit. Pushes and voids contribute nothing.
ROI / yield	Profit in units divided by decided picks — return per unit staked, not return on a bankroll.
Hit rate	Won divided by decided. Pushes, voids, cancellations and pending picks are not in the denominator.
Hit-rate interval	95% Wilson score interval around the hit rate. Wilson rather than the normal approximation because at small samples the normal interval can exceed 0–100% and collapses to zero width at 0% or 100%.
Average published odds	Mean decimal price at the moment of publication, across every publication in the view.
Average closing odds	Mean decimal closing price, across only those publications that carry one. Read the coverage figure beside it before quoting this.
Closing-line coverage	Share of publications in the view that carry a closing price at all. A coverage of 0% is a measurement about our data; it is not a statement about the model.
Average CLV	Mean of (published odds / closing odds − 1) over publications that carry a closing price. Positive means the published price was better than the close.
Current streak	The trailing run of identical verdicts, ordered by settlement time.
Current drawdown (units)	Units below the highest cumulative profit reached so far, in publication order.
Maximum drawdown (units)	The largest peak-to-trough fall in cumulative profit, in publication order.
Last settlement	The most recent settlement timestamp in the view.
Brier score	Mean squared error of the model probability against the outcome. Lower is better. A forecast metric: it judges the probability, not the price.
Log loss	Mean negative log likelihood of the outcome under the model probability, clamped so a confident miss is expensive but finite.
Expected calibration error	Weighted mean gap between predicted and observed frequency across probability buckets. Withheld below 50 settled events.
Brier skill	Improvement in Brier score against always predicting the base rate. Positive means better than guessing the average.
Fair odds	1 divided by the model probability — the price at which the model is indifferent. Not a price anyone offered.
Unit return	The one-unit profit of a single row. Empty for pending, push, void and cancelled rows.
Correction state	Whether the claim still stands as first published, has been corrected forward, or has been retracted. Retracted claims score in neither direction.
Publication lead time	Hours between publication and kickoff. Every publication is written before kickoff; the ledger refuses any that is not.

Band definitions, for every filter that groups a continuous value.
Dimension	Band	Definition
Market family	Match result	Which side wins, including the draw where the sport has one (1X2, moneyline, match winner).
Market family	Double chance	Two of the three match-result outcomes taken together.
Market family	Totals	Combined score over or under a line (over/under, totals, goals lines).
Market family	Both teams to score	Whether both sides score at least once.
Market family	Handicap	A side with a goal, point or game start applied (handicap, spread, Asian handicap).
Market family	Other markets	Every market that does not fall into one of the named families above.
Selection type	Home	The home side, or the first-named player.
Selection type	Away	The away side, or the second-named player.
Selection type	Draw	The match ends level.
Selection type	Over	The total finishes above the line.
Selection type	Under	The total finishes below the line.
Selection type	Yes	The named event happens.
Selection type	No	The named event does not happen.
Selection type	Other	Any selection that is not one of the standard sides, totals or yes/no outcomes.
Odds band	Under 1.50	Odds at publication below 1.50.
Odds band	1.50–1.99	Odds at publication from 1.50 up to but not including 2.00.
Odds band	2.00–2.99	Odds at publication from 2.00 up to but not including 3.00.
Odds band	3.00–4.99	Odds at publication from 3.00 up to but not including 5.00.
Odds band	5.00+	Odds at publication from 5.00 up to but not including any higher price.
Probability band	Under 40%	Model probability below 0.40.
Probability band	40–49%	Model probability from 0.40 up to but not including 0.50.
Probability band	50–59%	Model probability from 0.50 up to but not including 0.60.
Probability band	60–69%	Model probability from 0.60 up to but not including 0.70.
Probability band	70% and above	Model probability of 0.70 or higher.
Decision tier	Pick	Cleared every gate; published as a selection.
Decision tier	Lean	The model favoured a side below the publication bar.
Decision tier	Watch	Tracked interest that had not cleared publication.
Decision tier	Pass	Analysed and declined.
Decision tier	Withheld	A decision existed but the evidence bar was not met.
Decision tier	Unavailable	No decision could be formed from the available data.
Data readiness	Complete	Every evidence input the decision policy asks for was present.
Data readiness	Partial	Some evidence was missing; the decision was made on what was there.
Data readiness	Stale	The evidence or price behind the claim had aged past its freshness bar.
Data readiness	Unavailable	Evidence could not be read at decision time.
Data readiness	Confirmed empty	The evidence source was readable and genuinely held nothing.
Publication lead time	Under 2 hours	Published less than two hours before kickoff.
Publication lead time	2–6 hours	Published two to six hours before kickoff.
Publication lead time	6–24 hours	Published six to twenty-four hours before kickoff.
Publication lead time	Over 24 hours	Published more than a day before kickoff.
Result state	Won	The selection was correct at the published price.
Result state	Lost	The selection was incorrect. One unit staked, one unit lost.
Result state	Push	The market returned the stake. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator.
Result state	Void	The market never resolved. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator.
Result state	Cancelled	The fixture was called off. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator.
Result state	Pending	No verdict yet — either unsettled or awaiting verification.
Result state	Any settled	Every claim that has reached a terminal state, whatever the verdict.

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