OddsPadi official publication ledger
Track record — All time
Every official publication in the ledger, from the first to the most recent.
Generated 19 Oct 2026, 13:29 · Competition: Allsvenskan · The ledger runs from 2026-08-03 to 2026-08-09 — 7 days.
Published7
Settled3
Pending4
Won0
Lost3
Push0
Void0
Hit rate0.0%
Profit−3.00u
ROI / yield-100.0%
Average odds5.56
Average closeNot available
Closing coverage0.0%
Average CLVNot available
Current streak3 losses
Current drawdown+3.00u
Max drawdown+3.00u
95% Wilson interval on the hit rate: 0.0% to 56.2%. The interval, not the point estimate, is the honest width of what 3 settled picks can tell you.
These figures come from 3 settled picks. That is too small a sample to distinguish skill from variance — treat it as an early record, not a track record.
Closing prices are held for 0 of 7 publications in this view. Average closing odds and CLV are computed over those rows only and are reported as not available when there are none — a closing-line value of zero would be a claim about the model rather than about our data.
Last settlement: 8 Aug 2026, 15:15.
Hit rate, profit, yield, CLV and drawdown judge a selection at its price. Brier score and calibration judge the probability. They answer different questions and are never combined into one headline.
Brier score0.0711
Log loss0.3064
Calibration errorInsufficient sample (3)
Brier skillNot applicable
| Published | Fixture | Market & selection | Odds | Model | Close | Result | Return | Provenance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026, 10:22 Kickoff 8 Aug 2026, 13:00 | Orgryte IS v AIK Stockholm football · Allsvenskan | match_winner / home match winner · Match result | 3.10 3.00–4.99 | 32.8% Fair 3.05 | — CLV — | Lost 8 Aug 2026, 15:15 | −1.00u | football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published | MatchReceipt b06e4c46-4cff-4781-b13f-f92ca1f48190 |
| 7 Aug 2026, 10:22 Kickoff 10 Aug 2026, 17:00 | Vasteras SK FK v Djurgardens IF football · Allsvenskan | match_winner / home match winner · Match result | 4.60 3.00–4.99 | 26.1% Fair 3.83 | — CLV — | Pending | — | football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published | MatchReceipt 44df17ae-75cb-4684-9732-7921b2b61f0e |
| 3 Aug 2026, 11:09 Kickoff 9 Aug 2026, 12:00 | Hammarby FF v BK Hacken football · Allsvenskan | match_winner / away match winner · Match result | 5.30 5.00+ | 21.8% Fair 4.60 | — CLV — | Pending | — | football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published | MatchReceipt 968afcb4-70c9-4c11-9d47-712109787dd2 |
| 3 Aug 2026, 11:08 Kickoff 9 Aug 2026, 12:00 | Malmo FF v Degerfors IF football · Allsvenskan | match_winner / away match winner · Match result | 5.80 5.00+ | 22.2% Fair 4.50 | — CLV — | Pending | — | football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published | MatchReceipt 5bbe99a4-4804-4a45-8f55-aa308ac5ffc1 |
| 3 Aug 2026, 11:08 Kickoff 3 Aug 2026, 17:00 | Djurgardens IF v Vasteras SK FK football · Allsvenskan | match_winner / away match winner · Match result | 7.00 5.00+ | 21.6% Fair 4.63 | — CLV — | Lost 6 Aug 2026, 11:15 | −1.00u | football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published | MatchReceipt 5a0d12b7-8723-4b85-b741-7679430fb36b |
| 3 Aug 2026, 11:08 Kickoff 3 Aug 2026, 17:00 | Halmstad v Sirius football · Allsvenskan | match_winner / home match winner · Match result | 8.50 5.00+ | 24.3% Fair 4.12 | — CLV — | Lost 6 Aug 2026, 11:15 | −1.00u | football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published | MatchReceipt 448f628b-2acd-4c29-ad7b-07da6809c5a3 |
| 3 Aug 2026, 11:08 Kickoff 9 Aug 2026, 14:30 | Halmstad v Gais football · Allsvenskan | match_winner / home match winner · Match result | 4.60 3.00–4.99 | 36.6% Fair 2.73 | — CLV — | Pending | — | football-poisson-v5 cal football-poisson-v5 As published | MatchReceipt a382b22d-29bd-43a4-b384-60d85378ffdf |
- Orgryte IS v AIK StockholmLost
football · Allsvenskan · 7 Aug 2026, 10:22
match_winner / home match winner
- Odds
- 3.10
- Model
- 32.8%
- Fair
- 3.05
- Close
- —
- CLV
- —
- Return
- −1.00u
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
MatchReceipt - Vasteras SK FK v Djurgardens IFPending
football · Allsvenskan · 7 Aug 2026, 10:22
match_winner / home match winner
- Odds
- 4.60
- Model
- 26.1%
- Fair
- 3.83
- Close
- —
- CLV
- —
- Return
- —
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
MatchReceipt - Hammarby FF v BK HackenPending
football · Allsvenskan · 3 Aug 2026, 11:09
match_winner / away match winner
- Odds
- 5.30
- Model
- 21.8%
- Fair
- 4.60
- Close
- —
- CLV
- —
- Return
- —
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
MatchReceipt - Malmo FF v Degerfors IFPending
football · Allsvenskan · 3 Aug 2026, 11:08
match_winner / away match winner
- Odds
- 5.80
- Model
- 22.2%
- Fair
- 4.50
- Close
- —
- CLV
- —
- Return
- —
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
MatchReceipt - Djurgardens IF v Vasteras SK FKLost
football · Allsvenskan · 3 Aug 2026, 11:08
match_winner / away match winner
- Odds
- 7.00
- Model
- 21.6%
- Fair
- 4.63
- Close
- —
- CLV
- —
- Return
- −1.00u
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
MatchReceipt - Halmstad v SiriusLost
football · Allsvenskan · 3 Aug 2026, 11:08
match_winner / home match winner
- Odds
- 8.50
- Model
- 24.3%
- Fair
- 4.12
- Close
- —
- CLV
- —
- Return
- −1.00u
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
MatchReceipt - Halmstad v GaisPending
football · Allsvenskan · 3 Aug 2026, 11:08
match_winner / home match winner
- Odds
- 4.60
- Model
- 36.6%
- Fair
- 2.73
- Close
- —
- CLV
- —
- Return
- —
football-poisson-v5 · calibration football-poisson-v5 · As published
MatchReceipt
What every number on this page means
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| Published | Official public picks published in the period. Retracted claims are counted here and excluded from every other figure. |
| Settled | Publications that have reached a terminal state: won, lost, push, void or cancelled. |
| Pending | Publications with no verdict yet — unsettled, or awaiting verification. |
| Won | Settled correct at the published price. |
| Lost | Settled incorrect. One unit staked, one unit lost. |
| Push | The market returned the stake. Not a win and not a loss; excluded from the hit-rate denominator. |
| Void | The market never resolved. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator. |
| Cancelled | The fixture was called off. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator. |
| Decided | Won plus lost. The denominator for hit rate, profit and yield. |
| Profit (units) | One unit staked per decided pick at the price recorded at publication. A win returns the price minus the stake; a loss costs one unit. Pushes and voids contribute nothing. |
| ROI / yield | Profit in units divided by decided picks — return per unit staked, not return on a bankroll. |
| Hit rate | Won divided by decided. Pushes, voids, cancellations and pending picks are not in the denominator. |
| Hit-rate interval | 95% Wilson score interval around the hit rate. Wilson rather than the normal approximation because at small samples the normal interval can exceed 0–100% and collapses to zero width at 0% or 100%. |
| Average published odds | Mean decimal price at the moment of publication, across every publication in the view. |
| Average closing odds | Mean decimal closing price, across only those publications that carry one. Read the coverage figure beside it before quoting this. |
| Closing-line coverage | Share of publications in the view that carry a closing price at all. A coverage of 0% is a measurement about our data; it is not a statement about the model. |
| Average CLV | Mean of (published odds / closing odds − 1) over publications that carry a closing price. Positive means the published price was better than the close. |
| Current streak | The trailing run of identical verdicts, ordered by settlement time. |
| Current drawdown (units) | Units below the highest cumulative profit reached so far, in publication order. |
| Maximum drawdown (units) | The largest peak-to-trough fall in cumulative profit, in publication order. |
| Last settlement | The most recent settlement timestamp in the view. |
| Brier score | Mean squared error of the model probability against the outcome. Lower is better. A forecast metric: it judges the probability, not the price. |
| Log loss | Mean negative log likelihood of the outcome under the model probability, clamped so a confident miss is expensive but finite. |
| Expected calibration error | Weighted mean gap between predicted and observed frequency across probability buckets. Withheld below 50 settled events. |
| Brier skill | Improvement in Brier score against always predicting the base rate. Positive means better than guessing the average. |
| Fair odds | 1 divided by the model probability — the price at which the model is indifferent. Not a price anyone offered. |
| Unit return | The one-unit profit of a single row. Empty for pending, push, void and cancelled rows. |
| Correction state | Whether the claim still stands as first published, has been corrected forward, or has been retracted. Retracted claims score in neither direction. |
| Publication lead time | Hours between publication and kickoff. Every publication is written before kickoff; the ledger refuses any that is not. |
| Dimension | Band | Definition |
|---|---|---|
| Market family | Match result | Which side wins, including the draw where the sport has one (1X2, moneyline, match winner). |
| Market family | Double chance | Two of the three match-result outcomes taken together. |
| Market family | Totals | Combined score over or under a line (over/under, totals, goals lines). |
| Market family | Both teams to score | Whether both sides score at least once. |
| Market family | Handicap | A side with a goal, point or game start applied (handicap, spread, Asian handicap). |
| Market family | Other markets | Every market that does not fall into one of the named families above. |
| Selection type | Home | The home side, or the first-named player. |
| Selection type | Away | The away side, or the second-named player. |
| Selection type | Draw | The match ends level. |
| Selection type | Over | The total finishes above the line. |
| Selection type | Under | The total finishes below the line. |
| Selection type | Yes | The named event happens. |
| Selection type | No | The named event does not happen. |
| Selection type | Other | Any selection that is not one of the standard sides, totals or yes/no outcomes. |
| Odds band | Under 1.50 | Odds at publication below 1.50. |
| Odds band | 1.50–1.99 | Odds at publication from 1.50 up to but not including 2.00. |
| Odds band | 2.00–2.99 | Odds at publication from 2.00 up to but not including 3.00. |
| Odds band | 3.00–4.99 | Odds at publication from 3.00 up to but not including 5.00. |
| Odds band | 5.00+ | Odds at publication from 5.00 up to but not including any higher price. |
| Probability band | Under 40% | Model probability below 0.40. |
| Probability band | 40–49% | Model probability from 0.40 up to but not including 0.50. |
| Probability band | 50–59% | Model probability from 0.50 up to but not including 0.60. |
| Probability band | 60–69% | Model probability from 0.60 up to but not including 0.70. |
| Probability band | 70% and above | Model probability of 0.70 or higher. |
| Decision tier | Pick | Cleared every gate; published as a selection. |
| Decision tier | Lean | The model favoured a side below the publication bar. |
| Decision tier | Watch | Tracked interest that had not cleared publication. |
| Decision tier | Pass | Analysed and declined. |
| Decision tier | Withheld | A decision existed but the evidence bar was not met. |
| Decision tier | Unavailable | No decision could be formed from the available data. |
| Data readiness | Complete | Every evidence input the decision policy asks for was present. |
| Data readiness | Partial | Some evidence was missing; the decision was made on what was there. |
| Data readiness | Stale | The evidence or price behind the claim had aged past its freshness bar. |
| Data readiness | Unavailable | Evidence could not be read at decision time. |
| Data readiness | Confirmed empty | The evidence source was readable and genuinely held nothing. |
| Publication lead time | Under 2 hours | Published less than two hours before kickoff. |
| Publication lead time | 2–6 hours | Published two to six hours before kickoff. |
| Publication lead time | 6–24 hours | Published six to twenty-four hours before kickoff. |
| Publication lead time | Over 24 hours | Published more than a day before kickoff. |
| Result state | Won | The selection was correct at the published price. |
| Result state | Lost | The selection was incorrect. One unit staked, one unit lost. |
| Result state | Push | The market returned the stake. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator. |
| Result state | Void | The market never resolved. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator. |
| Result state | Cancelled | The fixture was called off. Excluded from the hit-rate denominator. |
| Result state | Pending | No verdict yet — either unsettled or awaiting verification. |
| Result state | Any settled | Every claim that has reached a terminal state, whatever the verdict. |
Play it smart, padi: good analysis helps you decide better, but no analysis removes risk. OddsPadi presents probabilities rather than certainty, doesn't take bets, and doesn't hold your money. If you bet, keep it fun — only stake what you can afford to lose. Limits and support near you.