One claim, audited
This is the complete record of a single official public pick: what was claimed, under which model, at what price, and everything that has happened to it since. Publication id 2dfedf92-a84b-4bb2-b49f-c7381fde0e65.
match_winner / away
- Fixture
- api-football:1607163
- Sport
- football
- Competition
- UEFA Champions League
- Market
- match winner
- Selection
- away
- Odds at publication
- 5.40
- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Model probability
- 22.7%
- Fair odds
- 4.41
- Closing odds
- —
- Closing-line value
- —
- Unit return
- −1.00u
Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability — the price at which the model is indifferent. Nobody offered that price; it is shown so the published price can be judged against it. An em dash means the value is not known, never that it is zero.
What produced this claim, and when
- Published at
- 3 Aug 2026, 11:08
- Kickoff
- 5 Aug 2026, 16:30
- Evidence cutoff
- 3 Aug 2026, 05:09
- Odds snapshot
- 3 Aug 2026, 05:09
- Model version
- football-poisson-v5
- Feature-set version
- football-runtime-features-v5
- Calibration version
- football-poisson-v5
- Decision-policy version
- decision-engine-v2
- Decision tier
- pick
- Data readiness
- partial
- Publication status
- published
- Revision
- 1
Four independently versioned inputs are recorded because the same probability under a different calibration is a different claim. The evidence cutoff is enforced to be at or before publication, so a claim cannot have seen evidence from after it was made.
Every verdict recorded against this claim
| Verdict | Settled | Current | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lost | 6 Aug 2026, 15:15 | Current | Final score 2-1 resolved to home. |
Settlement is idempotent and at most one verdict is current. A re-graded result supersedes its predecessor rather than overwriting it, so a superseded row above is part of the audit trail, not a mistake.
What changed after publication
This claim stands exactly as it was first published. No correction has been issued against it.
Discussion of this publication
Nothing has been posted about this yet — an honest quiet beats artificial chatter. Start the thread.