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Pulling the odds, probabilities and the full engine breakdown for this fixture.
Pulling the odds, probabilities and the full engine breakdown for this fixture.
Score: 1-1 (55')
“Value edge” is our probability minus the bookmaker's fair probability (margin removed). Positive edge means the price is better than it should be. Current best edge: none found.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker | Model | Raw implied | No-vig implied | Margin | No-vig edge | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | Chelsea | 2.02 | Market price | 39% | 50% | 47% | +4.3% | -8.4% | -21.1% |
| Match winner | Draw | 3.55 | Market price | 37% | 28% | 27% | +4.3% | +10.4% | +32.6% |
| Match winner | Brighton | 3.75 | Market price | 24% | 27% | 26% | +4.3% | -2.0% | -11.6% |
| Goals over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 Goals | 1.93 | Market price | 71% | 52% | 51% | +1.3% | +20.3% | +37.9% |
| Goals over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 Goals | 2.02 | Market price | 29% | 50% | 49% | +1.3% | -20.3% | -42.3% |
| Both teams to score | BTTS Yes | 2.00 | Market price | 95% | 50% | 50% | -0.2% | +44.8% | +89.9% |
| Both teams to score | BTTS No | 2.01 | Market price | 5% | 50% | 50% | -0.2% | -44.8% | -89.9% |
OddsPadi estimates Chelsea at 39%, the draw at 37%, and Brighton at 24%. The current prices do not show a clear positive value edge, so the responsible call is to avoid forcing a pick.
Sports outcomes are uncertain. Predictions are model estimates, not guarantees.
This is the engine's complete working: every check, every doubt, every guardrail. Perfect if you like to see the maths behind the call.
decision-engine-v1 - rules and model reasoning
Decision engine is monitoring BTTS Yes: model 95%, no-vig implied 50%, edge +44.8%, EV +89.9%, fair odds 1.05.
Watchlist thesis requires more evidence before trust: BTTS Yes.
Decision engine is monitoring BTTS Yes: model 95%, no-vig implied 50%, edge +44.8%, EV +89.9%, fair odds 1.05. The research brief says keep on watchlist until required checks refresh odds, context, and review-loop warnings.
Research checks: Refresh bookmaker odds: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value. Refresh live event feed: Re-run the model with in-play state before keeping any selection visible. Update historical learning profile: Import real historical fixtures, odds, and outcomes; rerun backtests before letting learned thresholds tune live decisions. Resolve committee disagreement: Collect the missing signal, rerun guardrails, and keep the lower-risk action if the disagreement remains. Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value.
Notebook needs review: 10 operator check(s) remain before trusting BTTS Yes.
BTTS Yes is currently modeled at 95% with +44.8% no-vig edge.
Action: Rerun the sport model after any lineup, injury, weather, odds, or live-state update.
Quoted odds 2.00 imply EV +89.9% after margin removal.
Action: Refresh bookmaker odds and recompute raw implied probability, no-vig probability, edge, and EV.
No major missing context was recorded by the decision engine.
Action: Fetch the highest-priority missing provider signals before keeping the same action.
Remove the thesis if refreshed edge or EV is no longer positive; current fair odds 1.05.
Action: Downgrade to avoid when no-vig edge or EV falls to zero or below.
Stress applies a moderate adverse context update.
Action: Apply the provider context update and rerun actionability before showing the pick.
Belief is strong: BTTS Yes at 95% with +44.8% edge, +89.9% EV, uncertainty 27/100, expires in 3 minutes.
Action: Hide or downgrade the recommendation if the belief expires without a fresh decision run.
Operator checklist: Refresh bookmaker odds: Complete this check, then rerun the decision engine before trusting the current posture. Refresh live event feed: Complete this check, then rerun the decision engine before trusting the current posture. Update historical learning profile: Complete this check, then rerun the decision engine before trusting the current posture. Resolve committee disagreement: Complete this check, then rerun the decision engine before trusting the current posture. Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value.: Complete this check, then rerun the decision engine before trusting the current posture.
Decision can be shown with normal responsible-use language, while still requiring fresh odds before action.
Data coverage is 35/100: MVP mock/computed inputs are available, but 13 production signal(s) are still missing.
Chelsea vs Brighton is loaded from the MVP mock provider.
Recent results and ratings are present in the mock fixture; production needs provider-backed historical rows.
Standings snapshots exist in the training schema but are not yet connected to live decisions.
Model computes home/away strength from team rating, league strength, and match context; data quality 89%.
Chelsea: W-W-D-L-W; Brighton: D-L-W-D-L.
Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected.
No suspension provider is connected.
Mock context feed sees no major projected lineup disruption; replace with confirmed lineup provider before production.
Required before trust: Injuries: Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected. Suspensions: No suspension provider is connected. Lineups: Mock context feed sees no major projected lineup disruption; replace with confirmed lineup provider before production. Live scores: Live score is available from mockSportsDataProvider; event depth is audited separately. Match events: The fixture is live; the current context layer does not yet consume event-by-event in-play data. News signals: Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected. Weather: Mock weather signal leans toward slower tempo; production should replace this with venue-level weather. Fixture for the day: Chelsea vs Brighton is loaded from the MVP mock provider.
Odds intelligence found 2 actionable value candidate(s) across 3 market(s); best is BTTS Yes.
Model 95%; no-vig 50%; edge +44.8%; EV +89.9%; fair 1.05. BTTS Yes has positive no-vig edge +44.8% and EV +89.9%. Score 1.651. Shortening tolerance 47%.
Model 71%; no-vig 51%; edge +20.3%; EV +37.9%; fair 1.40. Over 2.5 Goals has positive no-vig edge +20.3% and EV +37.9%. Score 0.728. Shortening tolerance 27%.
Model 37%; no-vig 27%; edge +10.4%; EV +32.6%; fair 2.68. Draw has positive EV but confidence is low, so it stays on watch. Score 0.145. Shortening tolerance 25%.
Model 29%; no-vig 49%; edge -20.3%; EV -42.3%; fair 3.50. Under 2.5 Goals is priced efficiently or short versus the model after margin removal. Score -0.331. Shortening tolerance 0%.
Match winner looks broadly efficient after margin removal; no selection clears value guardrails.
Goals over/under 2.5 has 1 actionable value candidate(s); best is Over 2.5 Goals at +37.9% EV.
Both teams to score has 1 actionable value candidate(s); best is BTTS Yes at +89.9% EV.
Avoid notes: Chelsea: Chelsea is priced efficiently or short versus the model after margin removal. Brighton: Brighton is priced efficiently or short versus the model after margin removal. Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals is priced efficiently or short versus the model after margin removal. BTTS No: BTTS No is priced efficiently or short versus the model after margin removal.
Watchlist notes: Draw: Draw has positive EV but confidence is low, so it stays on watch.
BTTS Yes has a resilient market buffer: current odds 2.00, fair odds 1.05, and 47% shortening tolerance before EV reaches zero.
Edge +44.8%; EV +89.9%. Current quoted odds and model probability before any market move.
Edge +44.1%; EV +84.2%. Small price move against the model thesis.
Edge +43.6%; EV +80.4%. Standard pre-action price stress used by the decision engine.
Edge +42.2%; EV +70.9%. Aggressive market move against the quoted value.
Edge +46.1%; EV +99.4%. Market drifts longer; value may improve but could indicate adverse news.
Movement alerts: Remove or downgrade if odds shorten more than 47% from the current quote. A 5% odds shortening does not fully break the thesis, but still requires a refresh.
Belief is strong: BTTS Yes at 95% with +44.8% edge, +89.9% EV, uncertainty 27/100, expires in 3 minutes.
Impact +44.8%. Model 95%, no-vig 50%, EV +89.9%.
Impact +2.5%. Decision can be shown with normal responsible-use language, while still requiring fresh odds before action.
Impact +1.5%. Case memory found 5 similar stored decisions and did not find enough historical pressure to downgrade.
Impact +2.8%. Live projection Chelsea 1.85 - Brighton 1.59 from 1-1 at 55'.; In-play remaining xG 0.85-0.59; remaining time share 43%..
Invalidates when: Invalidate if BTTS Yes no-vig edge falls to zero or EV turns negative. Invalidate if confirmed lineups, injuries, suspensions, weather, or live events materially oppose the current thesis. Invalidate if bookmaker prices move before the next refresh window.
Probability trace is ready: market prior 50% updated to posterior 90%, with +39.4% posterior edge and +79.1% EV.
50% to 50% (0.0%). Started from bookmaker-margin-adjusted probability 50% before applying model and context evidence.
50% to 92% (+41.4%). Weighted high model probability 95% against the no-vig prior by data quality 89% and bookmaker margin -0.2%.
92% to 92% (0.0%). Applied bounded context shift 0.0% from 4 injury, lineup, weather, news, live, or sport-context signal(s).
92% to 89% (-2.4%). Applied a small pull back toward the no-vig market because 7 selection(s) were market-prior calibrated.
89% to 89% (+0.0%). Data quality 89% does not force a discount; only a tiny reliability nudge is allowed.
89% to 89% (+0.2%). Case memory found 5 similar stored decisions and did not find enough historical pressure to downgrade.
89% to 90% (+0.3%). Decision can be shown with normal responsible-use language, while still requiring fresh odds before action.
90% to 90% (0.0%). No abstention gate triggered, so the posterior is not downgraded here.
Trace conflicts: Model-market disagreement is +44.8% between model probability and no-vig prior. Chelsea availability caution: Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected. Weather tempo check: Mock weather signal leans toward slower tempo; production should replace this with venue-level weather.
Trace safeguards: Posterior probability is clamped between 2% and 98%. The probability trace cannot upgrade the final action beyond deterministic guardrails. Fresh odds, lineups, injuries, live events, and stored outcomes can still invalidate the posterior. This is public audit math, not hidden chain-of-thought or a guarantee of the match result.
Attribution is supportive: Model likelihood update is the strongest driver, with value score 100/100 and risk score 29/100.
Probability impact +41.4%. Weighted high model probability 95% against the no-vig prior by data quality 89% and bookmaker margin -0.2%.
Probability impact +44.8%. BTTS Yes has no-vig edge +44.8% and EV +89.9%.
Decision can be shown with normal responsible-use language, while still requiring fresh odds before action.
Data coverage is 35/100: MVP mock/computed inputs are available, but 13 production signal(s) are still missing.
Injuries: Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected.
Suspensions: No suspension provider is connected.
Missing-data drag: Injuries, Suspensions, Lineups, Live scores, Match events.
The final action is mainly supported by model-vs-market edge, posterior probability, odds intelligence, and reliability checks.
Uncertainty needs watchlist treatment at 53/100; primary uncertainty is Data coverage uncertainty.
Data coverage is 35/100: MVP mock/computed inputs are available, but 13 production signal(s) are still missing.
Mitigation: Injuries: Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected.
Model and no-vig market differ by +44.8%.
Mitigation: Refresh bookmaker odds, compare closing price, and rerun no-vig probability before trusting the edge.
No major missing context signal is currently flagged.
Mitigation: Keep lineups, injuries, weather, news, and live events refreshed.
Monitoring is watching with critical priority because the belief or committee is not fully settled; next review in 3 minutes.
Mitigation: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value.
Model uncertainty is low; model data quality is 89%.
Mitigation: Improve model inputs with provider-backed history, form, team/player availability, and settled calibration.
BTTS Yes has a resilient market buffer: current odds 2.00, fair odds 1.05, and 47% shortening tolerance before EV reaches zero.
Mitigation: Remove or downgrade if odds shorten more than 47% from the current quote.
Decision impact: Keep the decision monitored until the primary uncertainty bucket is reduced.
Decision boundary is at-risk; nearest flip is No-vig edge floor: +39.4% clearance.
Current 90%; threshold 50%; margin +39.6%. Posterior probability is 90% versus break-even 50%; no-vig market floor is 50%.
Current 2.00; threshold 1.12; margin +0.88 odds. Quoted odds 2.00 must stay at or above posterior fair odds 1.12.
Current +39.4%; threshold 0.0%; margin +39.4%. Current edge is +39.4%; the hard floor is positive edge.
Current +79.1%; threshold 0.0%; margin +79.1%. Current expected value is +79.1%; EV at or below zero removes value.
Current 79/100; threshold 24/100; margin +55 pts. Decision score is 79/100; lean-value consideration starts at 24, while strong value starts at 42 with high confidence.
Current 89/100; threshold 62/100; margin +27 pts. Model data quality is 89% and coverage audit score is 35/100; below 62/100 hard-blocks trust.
Current 53/100; threshold 66/100; margin +13 pts. Uncertainty score is 53/100; 66/100 or higher is high-risk unless mitigated.
Current +41.3%; threshold 0.0%; margin +41.3%. Worst-case stress still leaves minimum edge/EV margin at +41.3%.
Current 47%; threshold 3%; margin +44.3%. The price can shorten about 47% before value disappears; below 3% is execution-sensitive.
Must stay true: BTTS Yes posterior probability stays above break-even 50%. Quoted odds stay at or above posterior fair odds 1.12. No-vig edge and expected value stay positive. Decision score stays at or above 24 and no hard abstention gate triggers. Model data quality stays at or above 62/100. Uncertainty stays below 66/100 and context-shock stress keeps value above zero.
Flip triggers: No active boundary pressure; refresh odds and context before public display.
AI protocol needs data: 5/7 questions answered, 3 watch check(s), and 2 missing tool request(s).
BTTS Yes has model probability 95%, no-vig probability 50%, edge +44.8%, and EV +89.9%.
Follow-up: Refresh bookmaker odds before public display.
BTTS Yes has a resilient market buffer: current odds 2.00, fair odds 1.05, and 47% shortening tolerance before EV reaches zero.
Follow-up: Refresh odds, recompute no-vig probability, and downgrade if the latest quote crosses the fair-odds or EV threshold.
No-vig edge floor: +39.4% clearance.
Follow-up: Use watchlist posture until data coverage or uncertainty improves.
Injuries: Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected.
Follow-up: Injuries: Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected.
Actionability is 85/100: BTTS Yes can be shown as an inspectable value candidate after the listed refresh checks. Review loop kept monitor after repair checks: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value. Do not raise confidence from training until real historical data is active.
Follow-up: Fresh odds must keep no-vig edge and expected value positive.
No 10-year public historical evidence is attached to this decision run. Run the public historical evidence proof before using history to discipline raw model edges.
Follow-up: Keep historical discipline attached to the audit trail.
Refresh odds, recompute no-vig probability, and downgrade if the latest quote crosses the fair-odds or EV threshold.
Unlocks: Recalculates implied probability, no-vig edge, EV, boundary margins, and closing-line-value target.
Injuries: Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected.
Unlocks: Reduces data/context uncertainty and reruns the actionability and review-loop gates.
Live state can invalidate pre-match probability and edge.
Unlocks: Updates live-state model inputs and hard in-play abstention gates.
Latest real-data backtest is available for shadow comparison only; live guardrails require an active model-bound calibration promotion.
Unlocks: Tunes learned minimum edge, data-quality weight, market-adjustment weight, and calibration thresholds.
Attach public historical evidence or a persisted provider-backed learning profile.
Unlocks: Confirms whether provider-enriched historical results beat market consensus before any raw edge can be promoted.
Reviewer guardrails: Use only supplied evidence IDs and model artifacts. Do not invent injuries, lineups, weather, news, odds, scores, or private facts. Do not expose hidden chain-of-thought; return public audit notes only. Do not upgrade a local avoid or monitor action into a stronger recommendation. Downgrade or abstain when safety gates, boundary breaches, or unsupported material claims remain.
Reasoning graph is contested: 7 supporting node(s), 5 watch node(s), and 0 blocker node(s).
Decide whether Chelsea vs Brighton can show BTTS Yes as a responsible value candidate.
Probability trace is ready: market prior 50% updated to posterior 90%, with +39.4% posterior edge and +79.1% EV.
Evidence: probability-trace-summary
Odds intelligence found 2 actionable value candidate(s) across 3 market(s); best is BTTS Yes.
Evidence: odds-intelligence-summary, market-movement-summary
Data coverage is 35/100: MVP mock/computed inputs are available, but 13 production signal(s) are still missing.
Evidence: data-coverage-summary
Uncertainty needs watchlist treatment at 53/100; primary uncertainty is Data coverage uncertainty.
Evidence: uncertainty-summary
Decision boundary is at-risk; nearest flip is No-vig edge floor: +39.4% clearance.
Evidence: decision-boundary-summary
Attribution is supportive: Model likelihood update is the strongest driver, with value score 100/100 and risk score 29/100.
Evidence: attribution-summary
Actionability is 85/100: BTTS Yes can be shown as an inspectable value candidate after the listed refresh checks.
Evidence: review-loop-summary, attribution-summary
Strongest path: objective -> model-probability -> market-value -> boundary -> attribution -> actionability -> final-action.
Blocking path: objective -> data-coverage -> uncertainty -> learning-memory -> tool-requests -> final-action -> final-action.
Tool orchestration needs tools: 4/12 task(s) ready, 5 high-priority config gap(s), next task Refresh bookmaker odds and no-vig probabilities, readiness 43/100.
Provider: mockSportsDataProvider. Depends on: none.
Chelsea vs Brighton is loaded from the MVP mock provider.
Decision impact: Without the fixture, the decision stays avoid and every downstream task is blocked.
Provider: mockSportsDataProvider. Depends on: fixtures-today.
Recent results and ratings are present in the mock fixture; production needs provider-backed historical rows.
Decision impact: Weak history keeps model strength, form weighting, and learned thresholds conservative.
Provider: missing-provider. Depends on: fixtures-today, historical-results.
Standings snapshots exist in the training schema but are not yet connected to live decisions.
Decision impact: Missing standings lower data quality and increase context uncertainty.
Provider: mockSportsDataProvider + deterministic-model. Depends on: fixtures-today, historical-results.
Recent form: Chelsea: W-W-D-L-W; Brighton: D-L-W-D-L.
Decision impact: If form or home/away inputs change, the model probability and value edge are recalculated.
Provider: Sport-specific context providers. Depends on: fixtures-today.
Injuries: Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected.
Decision impact: Material team news can downgrade or flip the action before kickoff.
Provider: Bookmaker odds provider. Depends on: fixtures-today.
Refresh odds, recompute no-vig probability, and downgrade if the latest quote crosses the fair-odds or EV threshold.
Decision impact: A price move can erase the edge, change the safer alternative, or move the pick to avoid.
Provider: Live score and event provider. Depends on: fixtures-today, odds-refresh.
Live state can invalidate pre-match probability and edge.
Decision impact: Live goals, cards, retirements, or tempo shocks can invalidate pre-match value.
Provider: mock-context-feed. Depends on: fixtures-today.
Mock weather signal leans toward slower tempo; production should replace this with venue-level weather.
Decision impact: Severe weather can move totals, BTTS, fatigue, or model uncertainty.
Blocking tasks: historical-results, standings-table, context-availability, odds-refresh, live-state-events.
Execution order: fixtures-today -> historical-results -> standings-table -> recent-form-home-away -> context-availability -> odds-refresh -> live-state-events -> weather-context -> historical-training -> historical-discipline -> decision-memory -> openai-review.
Tool execution audit is blocked: Load team/player historical results, Load league standings, Fetch injuries, suspensions, lineups, and news, Refresh bookmaker odds and no-vig probabilities, Fetch live score and match events must run before the current decision can be trusted.
Load today's fixture executed from mockSportsDataProvider with 1 observed record(s).
Outputs: fixture, kickoff, teams, league
Load team/player historical results is blocked: Recent results and ratings are present in the mock fixture; production needs provider-backed historical rows.
Outputs: team-history, player-history, long-form
Load league standings is blocked: Standings snapshots exist in the training schema but are not yet connected to live decisions.
Outputs: league-standings, motivation-context
Compute recent form and home/away profile executed from mockSportsDataProvider + deterministic-model with 12 observed record(s).
Outputs: recent-form, home-away-profile, team-strength
Fetch injuries, suspensions, lineups, and news is blocked: Injuries: Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected.
Outputs: injuries, suspensions, lineups, news
Refresh bookmaker odds and no-vig probabilities is blocked: Refresh odds, recompute no-vig probability, and downgrade if the latest quote crosses the fair-odds or EV threshold.
Outputs: raw-implied-probability, no-vig-probability, expected-value, value-edge
Fetch live score and match events is blocked: Live state can invalidate pre-match probability and edge.
Outputs: live-score, match-events, in-play-state
Fetch weather where relevant is blocked: Mock weather signal leans toward slower tempo; production should replace this with venue-level weather.
Outputs: weather, wind-rain-temperature
Next run: Load team/player historical results: Recent results and ratings are present in the mock fixture; production needs provider-backed historical rows.
Control policy blocks public display: 1 blocker gate(s), primary blocker Tool execution.
Directive: Block public display and collect the required evidence first.
Next best action: Load team/player historical results: Recent results and ratings are present in the mock fixture; production needs provider-backed historical rows.
BTTS Yes is the current selected market with edge +44.8% and EV +89.9%.
BTTS Yes has a resilient market buffer: current odds 2.00, fair odds 1.05, and 47% shortening tolerance before EV reaches zero.
Data coverage is 35/100: MVP mock/computed inputs are available, but 13 production signal(s) are still missing.
Required: Injuries: Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected.
Tool execution audit is blocked: Load team/player historical results, Load league standings, Fetch injuries, suspensions, lineups, and news, Refresh bookmaker odds and no-vig probabilities, Fetch live score and match events must run before the current decision can be trusted. Tool orchestration needs tools: 4/12 task(s) ready, 5 high-priority config gap(s), next task Refresh bookmaker odds and no-vig probabilities, readiness 43/100.
Required: Load team/player historical results: Recent results and ratings are present in the mock fixture; production needs provider-backed historical rows.
Decision boundary is at-risk; nearest flip is No-vig edge floor: +39.4% clearance.
Required: Use watchlist posture until data coverage or uncertainty improves.
No 10-year public historical evidence is attached to this decision run. Run the public historical evidence proof before using history to discipline raw model edges.
AI protocol needs data: 5/7 questions answered, 3 watch check(s), and 2 missing tool request(s).
Required: Injuries: Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected.
Reasoning graph is contested: 7 supporting node(s), 5 watch node(s), and 0 blocker node(s).
Required: data-coverage
Allowed: persist blocked audit only; collect required data; rerun the decision engine
Forbidden: publish as value candidate; show as actionable; upgrade by AI review; invent missing data
Monitoring is watching with critical priority because the belief or committee is not fully settled; next review in 3 minutes.
Current edge is +44.8% and EV is +89.9%; a price move can erase value.
Action: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value.
The match is live; red cards, injuries, pace, score state, and substitutions can invalidate pre-match probability.
Action: Re-run the model with in-play state before keeping any selection visible.
Latest real-data backtest is available for shadow comparison only; live guardrails require an active model-bound calibration promotion.
Action: Import real historical fixtures, odds, and outcomes; rerun backtests before letting learned thresholds tune live decisions.
Context scout voted monitor: Context is incomplete for Chelsea vs Brighton; 0 missing signals remain.
Action: Collect the missing signal, rerun guardrails, and keep the lower-risk action if the disagreement remains.
Stop when: Stop if BTTS Yes no-vig edge falls to zero or expected value turns negative. Invalidate if BTTS Yes no-vig edge falls to zero or EV turns negative. Invalidate if confirmed lineups, injuries, suspensions, weather, or live events materially oppose the current thesis. Invalidate if bookmaker prices move before the next refresh window.
Escalate when: If two high-priority monitoring tasks remain unresolved at the next review, downgrade the action to monitor or avoid. If bookmaker movement removes the value edge, remove the recommendation and rerun the committee. If confirmed team news, weather, surface, or live-event data opposes the thesis, rerun the model before showing the pick. If live-event data is unavailable during play, avoid instead of trusting the pre-match snapshot. If committee disagreement remains after the next data refresh, keep the lower-risk action. Do not raise confidence from historical learning until the real-data profile is active.
Actionability is 85/100: BTTS Yes can be shown as an inspectable value candidate after the listed refresh checks.
BTTS Yes has edge +44.8% and EV +89.9%.
Confidence is high and risk is low.
Data quality is 89%.
No blocking context gaps are currently tracked.
Belief is strong: BTTS Yes at 95% with +44.8% edge, +89.9% EV, uncertainty 27/100, expires in 3 minutes.
Before action: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value. Do not raise confidence from training until real historical data is active. Refresh bookmaker odds: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value. Refresh live event feed: Re-run the model with in-play state before keeping any selection visible. Update historical learning profile: Import real historical fixtures, odds, and outcomes; rerun backtests before letting learned thresholds tune live decisions. Refresh live event feed for cards, substitutions, injuries, and shot pressure before trusting the live edge.
Treat the output as statistical analysis, not certainty. Do not use this audit as staking, bankroll, or financial advice. Refresh odds and context before relying on any displayed edge. Avoid acting when the monitoring plan is blocked, expired, or unresolved.
Review loop kept monitor after repair checks: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value. Do not raise confidence from training until real historical data is active.
Evidence: BTTS Yes is the leading thesis because the model price beats the no-vig market by +44.8% with +89.9% EV per unit. Belief is strong: BTTS Yes at 95% with +44.8% edge, +89.9% EV, uncertainty 27/100, expires in 3 minutes.
Evidence: Monitoring state: Monitoring is watching with critical priority because the belief or committee is not fully settled; next review in 3 minutes. Historical learning profile: Latest real-data backtest is available for shadow comparison only; live guardrails require an active model-bound calibration promotion. The public-action invariant downgraded the committee candidate from consider to monitor. Decision committee recommends consider with leaning consensus: stable decision: surface BTTS Yes as inspectable value, but require fresh odds and context checks before action.
Required: Monitoring state: Monitoring is watching with critical priority because the belief or committee is not fully settled; next review in 3 minutes.
Evidence: Monitoring is watching with critical priority because the belief or committee is not fully settled; next review in 3 minutes. Refresh bookmaker odds: Current edge is +44.8% and EV is +89.9%; a price move can erase value. Refresh live event feed: The match is live; red cards, injuries, pace, score state, and substitutions can invalidate pre-match probability. Update historical learning profile: Latest real-data backtest is available for shadow comparison only; live guardrails require an active model-bound calibration promotion.
Evidence: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value. Do not raise confidence from training until real historical data is active. Refresh bookmaker odds: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value. Refresh live event feed: Re-run the model with in-play state before keeping any selection visible.
Required: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value.
Evidence: Actionability is 85/100: BTTS Yes can be shown as an inspectable value candidate after the listed refresh checks. Decision can be shown with normal responsible-use language, while still requiring fresh odds before action. Risk shift: raise; confidence shift: keep.
Repairs: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value. Do not raise confidence from training until real historical data is active. Refresh bookmaker odds: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value. Refresh live event feed: Re-run the model with in-play state before keeping any selection visible.
Unresolved: Monitoring state: Monitoring is watching with critical priority because the belief or committee is not fully settled; next review in 3 minutes. Historical learning profile: Latest real-data backtest is available for shadow comparison only; live guardrails require an active model-bound calibration promotion. Monitoring is watching. Committee consensus is leaning.
Release criteria: Fresh odds must keep no-vig edge and expected value positive. Belief state must be unexpired before the decision remains visible. Monitoring plan must be active or explicitly cleared. Actionability must stay actionable or the product should downgrade to watch/avoid. Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value. Do not raise confidence from training until real historical data is active. Refresh bookmaker odds: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value.
Robustness is 100/100: 6/6 stress tests preserve the current action.
Edge +43.0%; EV +86.3%. A 5% odds shortening projects a smaller no-vig edge for BTTS Yes.
Repair: Refresh bookmaker odds and remove the pick if edge or EV is no longer positive.
Edge +43.0%; EV +86.3%. Stress applies a moderate adverse context update.
Repair: Fetch lineups, injuries, suspensions, weather, and news before keeping the same action.
Edge +43.3%; EV +86.9%. Data-quality stress reflects current data score 89% and provider uncertainty.
Repair: Improve provider coverage or downgrade confidence until real data fills the gap.
Edge +41.3%; EV +82.9%. Monitoring state is watching; stale belief should reduce trust in the edge.
Repair: Rerun the belief state and monitoring plan before showing the candidate again.
Edge +42.3%; EV +84.9%. Review loop status is repaired; unresolved repairs should be priced into the decision.
Repair: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value.
Edge +41.8%; EV +83.9%. Actionability status is actionable with score 85/100.
Repair: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value.
Hedges: Both Teams To Score: BTTS Yes at model 95%. Goals: Over 2.5 Goals at model 71%. Double chance: Chelsea or Draw at model 76%.
Required rechecks: Refresh bookmaker odds: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value. Refresh live event feed: Re-run the model with in-play state before keeping any selection visible. Fresh odds must keep no-vig edge and expected value positive. Belief state must be unexpired before the decision remains visible.
Evaluation plan keeps this on watch: settle the final result and inspect whether missing context or price movement would have changed the action.
Settle whether BTTS Yes won for Chelsea vs Brighton.
Capture closing odds for BTTS Yes and compare them with the quoted 2.00.
Record whether monitoring tasks changed the thesis before kickoff: Refresh bookmaker odds, Refresh live event feed, Update historical learning profile.
Link the settled outcome to this decision run so confidence, health, Brier score, ROI, and CLV can be measured.
Success: BTTS Yes settles as correct for the chosen market. Closing-line value is at least positive or the closing no-vig probability confirms the edge. Settled outcome improves calibration for high-confidence low-risk decisions. No unresolved review-loop release criterion would have blocked the pick at kickoff.
Failure: BTTS Yes loses or pushes against the selected market settlement rules. Closing odds move against the thesis enough to erase the pre-match value edge. A required recheck was missed: Refresh bookmaker odds: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and expected value. The outcome joins similar stored cases that later discount this pattern.
Learning questions: Was 95% model probability calibrated against the binary settlement result? Did the no-vig market probability of 50% underprice the selection at decision time? Did closing odds validate the edge or expose stale market data? Did the unresolved monitoring or review-loop checks predict the final risk?
Post-match actions: Store the settled outcome through the decision outcome endpoint with the linked decision_run_id. Recompute calibration by confidence and decision health after settlement. Compare quoted odds with closing odds for closing-line value. Keep learned thresholds inactive until enough real historical fixtures and odds are imported.
Case memory found 5 similar stored decisions and did not find enough historical pressure to downgrade.
epl-001; score 79; reliability 100/100; same market both_teams_to_score, same selection label, confidence match
epl-001; score 79; reliability 100/100; same market both_teams_to_score, same selection label, confidence match
epl-001; score 79; reliability 100/100; same market both_teams_to_score, same selection label, confidence match
Latest real-data backtest is available for shadow comparison only; live guardrails require an active model-bound calibration promotion.
Chelsea vs Brighton; data quality 89%; missing signals 0.
Live projection Chelsea 1.85 - Brighton 1.59 from 1-1 at 55'.
BTTS Yes is the current best edge at +44.8%.
BTTS Yes is classified as low risk.
1 watch/conflict checks and 0 triggered abstention gates.
Weighted decision score 79; the agent will only surface the selection if guardrails agree.
The public-action invariant downgraded the committee candidate from consider to monitor. Decision committee recommends consider with leaning consensus: stable decision: surface BTTS Yes as inspectable value, but require fresh odds and context checks before action.
BTTS Yes is mathematically live because model probability is 95% against no-vig 50%.
Challenge: Chelsea availability caution: Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected. Source: mock-context-feed; confidence 50%. Weather tempo check: Mock weather signal leans toward slower tempo; production should replace this with venue-level weather. Source: mock-context-feed; confidence 48%.
Checks: Recompute probabilities after fresh odds and context updates.
The price still has to survive market scrutiny; odds shortening would change the edge on BTTS Yes.
Checks: Refresh bookmaker odds before surfacing a final edge.
Context is incomplete for Chelsea vs Brighton; 0 missing signals remain.
Challenge: A moderate adverse injury, suspension, or lineup shock is applied to the selected side.
Checks: Check lineup, injury, suspension, weather, live-state, and news signals near start time.
Reliability is 100/100 with stable health and trust calibration action.
Checks: Honor triggered abstention gates before any public recommendation.
Case memory found 5 similar stored decisions and did not find enough historical pressure to downgrade.
Challenge: Compared against 40 stored football decisions. Average similar-case reliability is 100/100.
Checks: Store this decision and settle outcomes so memory can learn from real results.
stable decision: surface BTTS Yes as inspectable value, but require fresh odds and context checks before action.
Challenge: Fresh bookmaker price Historical learning profile Similar stored decisions
Checks: Downgrade to monitor or avoid if adverse lineup, injury, weather, live-state, or data-quality signals oppose the selected side. Recalculate immediately; if the no-vig edge falls below zero or EV turns negative, remove BTTS Yes from value picks.
Open disagreements: Final public action is monitor; the pre-invariant committee candidate was consider. Context scout voted monitor: Context is incomplete for Chelsea vs Brighton; 0 missing signals remain.
BTTS Yes carries model probability 95%, no-vig implied 50%, odds 2.00, and EV +89.9%.
Impact: Supports showing the pick as inspectable value.
The selection still depends on a live bookmaker price. Market movement scenario projects consider at score 72.
Impact: Requires odds refresh before the recommendation can be trusted.
Available context signals do not add a blocking data gap.
Impact: Controls whether the engine considers, monitors, or abstains after late provider data arrives.
Base case decision score is 79; calibration says trust with 100/100 reliability.
Impact: stable decision: surface BTTS Yes as inspectable value, but require fresh odds and context checks before action.
Case memory found 5 similar stored decisions and did not find enough historical pressure to downgrade.
Impact: Memory stays neutral.
A shorter price can erase the +44.8% edge and +89.9% EV.
If confirmed: Recalculate implied probability, bookmaker margin, no-vig probability, value edge, and EV.
Without enough real historical fixtures and odds, thresholds stay conservative defaults.
If confirmed: Import real fixtures and odds, run backtests, then activate learned thresholds only after the corpus is large enough.
Case memory found 5 similar stored decisions and did not find enough historical pressure to downgrade.
If confirmed: Keep memory neutral while continuing to store and settle outcomes.
Bad-data path: Downgrade to monitor or avoid if adverse lineup, injury, weather, live-state, or data-quality signals oppose the selected side. Market-move path: Recalculate immediately; if the no-vig edge falls below zero or EV turns negative, remove BTTS Yes from value picks.
Context layer applied residual probability effects after reviewing 4 structured signals.
Mock context feed sees no major projected lineup disruption; replace with confirmed lineup provider before production.
Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected.
Mock weather signal leans toward slower tempo; production should replace this with venue-level weather.
The fixture is live; the current context layer does not yet consume event-by-event in-play data.
Positive no-vig edge of +44.8% versus margin-adjusted implied probability.
Expected return is +89.9% per unit at decimal odds 2.00.
high confidence after edge, probability, and data-quality checks.
Data quality is 89%.
low risk based on confidence and odds level.
Lineups, injury/suspension news, and weather are not connected yet.
Match is live; football score/minute in-play recalibration is active, with event-feed risk still monitored.
Latest real-data backtest is available for shadow comparison only; live guardrails require an active model-bound calibration promotion.
Case memory found 5 similar stored decisions and did not find enough historical pressure to downgrade.
Run the public historical evidence proof before using history to discipline raw model edges.
Home/draw/away probabilities sum to 1.000.
Confidence is high with 89% data quality.
Missing context does not contradict the current action.
BTTS Yes is low risk while action is consider.
Live football score/minute recalibration is active, but event-feed refresh remains required.
Live projection Chelsea 1.85 - Brighton 1.59 from 1-1 at 55'.; In-play remaining xG 0.85-0.59; remaining time share 43%..
BTTS Yes has 95% model probability versus 50% no-vig implied probability. Raw implied is 50% and market margin is -0.2%. Expected value is +89.9% per unit.
Chelsea: W-W-D-L-W; Brighton: D-L-W-D-L.
Data quality is 89%; low quality downgrades confidence.
Provider football context xG: Poisson expected goals used deterministic team strength, form, and xG proxies because provider-backed football context was not attached.
Context layer applied residual probability effects after reviewing 4 structured signals. Side shift home -0.7%, away 0.0%; total shift -0.8%.
Mock context feed sees no major projected lineup disruption; replace with confirmed lineup provider before production. Source: mock-context-feed; confidence 58%.
Synthetic injury/news signal slightly discounts the home side until real injury and suspension feeds are connected. Source: mock-context-feed; confidence 50%.
Mock weather signal leans toward slower tempo; production should replace this with venue-level weather. Source: mock-context-feed; confidence 48%.
The fixture is live; the current context layer does not yet consume event-by-event in-play data. Source: mock-context-feed; confidence 50%.
Live score is 1-1 at 55 minutes; score/minute Poisson recalibration is active.
Model 95% - fair odds 1.05
Model 71% - fair odds 1.40
Model 29% - fair odds 3.50
Model 5% - fair odds 19.86
Model 76% - fair odds 1.31 - needs bookmaker market
Current model, odds, data-quality, and missing-context state.
Projected edge would be +43.6%.
A moderate adverse injury, suspension, or lineup shock is applied to the selected side.
Lineups, injury/suspension news, and weather arrive and support the existing model signal.
BTTS Yes clears the positive-edge filter at +44.8% and EV +89.9%.
Data quality is 89%; below 62% the agent abstains.
BTTS Yes risk is low; high-risk picks need a wider edge before consideration.
Live football score/minute in-play Poisson is active; refresh event data for cards, substitutions, injuries, and shot pressure before trusting the edge.
Missing context is noted but does not force abstention at the current edge/data-quality level.
Fixture has no future-season seed or synthetic market flag.
No real-data training profile is active; default minimum-edge guardrail is used.
Case memory did not find enough similar stored pressure to force abstention.
No public historical discipline evidence is attached, so this gate stays neutral.
Verdict: no clear value
The agent does not see enough separation between OddsPadi probabilities and no-vig market probabilities for Chelsea vs Brighton.
Model football-poisson-v2; data quality 89%.
In-play remaining xG 0.85-0.59; remaining time share 43%.