Value watch: 6 positive-edge matches
The strongest currently stored model-versus-price edges, with confidence kept separate from certainty.
Engine evidence checked .
This watchlist reflects stored prices and probabilities at 2026-07-26T23:37:36.215Z and is regenerated because prices and evidence move. Treat it as a snapshot, not a guarantee.
A. Mannarino vs L. Tien — A. Mannarino: model 84%, recorded odds 3.70, edge 58%. I’m flagging this because the model’s probability and the recorded market price diverge substantially.
B. Bonzi vs B. Bicknell — B. Bicknell: model 72%, recorded odds 5.90, edge 56%. M. Poljicak vs J. Kovalik — J. Kovalik: model 90%, recorded odds 2.33, edge 51%.
A. Martin vs A. Beckley — A. Beckley: model 73%, recorded odds 3.63, edge 48%. K. Rice vs P. Llamas Ruiz — K. Rice: model 69%, recorded odds 4.25, edge 47%. L. Samson vs A. Breaz — A. Breaz: model 55%, recorded odds 9.40, edge 46%.
Positive edge is not a promise of a win. OddsPadi can publish fewer or no value picks when the evidence gate is not met.