Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-08-09T05:35:13.797Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Elina Svitolina — Elina Svitolina: model 54%, raw market 74%, gap -20%. Scheduled 2026-08-11T19:00:00.000Z. Luciano Darderi vs Brandon Nakashima — Brandon Nakashima: model 58%, raw market 71%, gap -13%. Scheduled 2026-08-11T14:00:00.000Z.
Learner Tien vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Learner Tien: model 57%, raw market 68%, gap -11%. Scheduled 2026-08-09T17:40:00.000Z. Los Angeles Sparks vs Golden State Valkyries — Golden State Valkyries: model 61%, raw market 69%, gap -8%. Scheduled 2026-08-09T23:00:00.000Z. Atlanta Dream vs Toronto Tempo — Atlanta Dream: model 79%, raw market 87%, gap -8%. Scheduled 2026-08-11T00:00:00.000Z. Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton — Ben Shelton: model 62%, raw market 54%, gap +8%. Scheduled 2026-08-09T22:00:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.