Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-08-08T23:35:14.361Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
Here are the largest gaps between our stored model and the raw market: Learner Tien vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Learner Tien: model 62%, raw market 70%, gap -8%. Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton — Ben Shelton: model 62%, raw market 54%, gap +7%. Los Angeles Sparks vs Golden State Valkyries — Golden State Valkyries: model 61%, raw market 68%, gap -6%. New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces — New York Liberty: model 73%, raw market 79%, gap -6%. Alina Korneeva vs Coco Gauff — Coco Gauff: model 71%, raw market 77%, gap -6%. Tallon Griekspoor vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Daniel Merida Aguilar: model 51%, raw market 45%, gap +5%.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches, so take the timing into account. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.