Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
Here are the largest gaps between our stored model probabilities and the raw implied bookmaker prices using the latest stored rows available at 2026-08-08T05:35:15.941Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Aryna Sabalenka: model 68%, raw market 83%, gap -15%. Scheduled 2026-08-08T23:00:00.000Z. Alina Korneeva vs Coco Gauff — Coco Gauff: model 68%, raw market 80%, gap -12%. Scheduled 2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z. Leylah Fernandez vs Naomi Osaka — Naomi Osaka: model 59%, raw market 69%, gap -10%. Scheduled 2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z.
Chicago Sky vs Indiana Fever — Indiana Fever: model 60%, raw market 69%, gap -9%. Scheduled 2026-08-08T19:30:00.000Z. Los Angeles Sparks vs Golden State Valkyries — Golden State Valkyries: model 60%, raw market 68%, gap -8%. Scheduled 2026-08-09T23:00:00.000Z. Tallon Griekspoor vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Tallon Griekspoor: model 50%, raw market 58%, gap -8%. Scheduled 2026-08-09T16:30:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.