Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-08-07T11:35:13.487Z. I’m sharing the biggest gaps between our stored model probabilities and the raw implied bookmaker price so you can see where the market and the model disagree the most.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Aryna Sabalenka: model 68%, raw market 82%, gap -14%. Scheduled 2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z.
Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca — Casper Ruud: model 55%, raw market 44%, gap +11%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T23:00:00.000Z.
Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez — Mirra Andreeva: model 70%, raw market 78%, gap -9%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.