Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-08-07T23:35:17.767Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Aryna Sabalenka: model 69%, raw market 83%, gap -14%. Scheduled 2026-08-08T23:00:00.000Z. Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul — Tommy Paul: model 72%, raw market 62%, gap +11%. Scheduled 2026-08-08T00:10:00.000Z. Caty McNally vs Alexandra Eala — Alexandra Eala: model 62%, raw market 69%, gap -8%. Scheduled 2026-08-08T00:30:00.000Z.
Chicago Sky vs Indiana Fever — Indiana Fever: model 61%, raw market 68%, gap -7%. Scheduled 2026-08-08T19:30:00.000Z. Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider — Jessica Pegula: model 65%, raw market 70%, gap -5%. Scheduled 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z. Ilves Tampere vs IFK Mariehamn — Ilves Tampere: model 71%, raw market 76%, gap -5%. Scheduled 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.