Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-08-06T23:35:15.276Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
Maya Joint vs Liudmila Samsonova — Liudmila Samsonova: model 55%, raw market 69%, gap -15%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T19:00:00.000Z. Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca — Casper Ruud: model 55%, raw market 45%, gap +10%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T23:00:00.000Z.
Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez — Mirra Andreeva: model 63%, raw market 74%, gap -10%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z. Ann Li vs Elena Rybakina — Elena Rybakina: model 74%, raw market 84%, gap -10%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T16:30:00.000Z. Elise Mertens vs Naomi Osaka — Naomi Osaka: model 60%, raw market 69%, gap -9%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T21:00:00.000Z. Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Alex Michelsen — Alex Michelsen: model 63%, raw market 71%, gap -9%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T16:30:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.