Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-08-06T05:35:09.340Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
Ann Li vs Elena Rybakina — Elena Rybakina: model 57%, raw market 83%, gap -27%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T19:00:00.000Z.
Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca — Casper Ruud: model 65%, raw market 44%, gap +21%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T16:30:00.000Z.
Caty McNally vs Alexandra Eala — Caty McNally: model 51%, raw market 33%, gap +18%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T19:00:00.000Z.
Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur — Alex de Minaur: model 84%, raw market 67%, gap +18%. Scheduled 2026-08-06T17:40:00.000Z.
Elise Mertens vs Naomi Osaka — Naomi Osaka: model 53%, raw market 69%, gap -16%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T19:00:00.000Z.
Maya Joint vs Liudmila Samsonova — Liudmila Samsonova: model 55%, raw market 69%, gap -15%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T19:00:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.