Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-08-05T23:35:10.899Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
Ann Li vs Elena Rybakina — Elena Rybakina: model 57%, raw market 83%, gap -27%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T19:00:00.000Z. Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca — Casper Ruud: model 67%, raw market 48%, gap +19%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z.
Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils — Learner Tien: model 57%, raw market 72%, gap -16%. Scheduled 2026-08-06T01:00:00.000Z. Yannick Hanfmann vs Nuno Borges — Nuno Borges: model 75%, raw market 60%, gap +15%. Scheduled 2026-08-06T17:40:00.000Z.
Iva Jović vs Alina Korneeva — Iva Jović: model 57%, raw market 71%, gap -14%. Scheduled 2026-08-07T19:00:00.000Z. Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul — Tommy Paul: model 70%, raw market 83%, gap -13%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T23:40:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.