Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
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Think of this as your shortcut to the biggest gaps between our stored model and what the market is currently implying. This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-08-05T05:35:16.373Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
F. Meligeni Alves vs E. Kohlmann — F. Meligeni Alves: model 61%, raw market 88%, gap -27%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T16:30:00.000Z. A. El Aouni vs D. Velikova — A. El Aouni: model 72%, raw market 93%, gap -21%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T10:30:00.000Z.
Y. Tanaka vs S. Mitsui — S. Mitsui: model 58%, raw market 78%, gap -21%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T09:30:00.000Z. W. Nolan vs J. Monday — J. Monday: model 71%, raw market 91%, gap -20%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z. R. Dugardin vs N. Schlagenhauf — N. Schlagenhauf: model 54%, raw market 74%, gap -19%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T11:00:00.000Z. A. Hejtmanek vs M. Maslenkova — A. Hejtmanek: model 70%, raw market 89%, gap -19%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T14:00:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.