Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-08-04T05:35:16.187Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
C. Broom vs N. Godsick — C. Broom: model 55%, raw market 90%, gap -35%. Scheduled 2026-08-04T13:30:00.000Z. E. Yashina vs A. Dudeney — A. Dudeney: model 65%, raw market 98%, gap -33%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T10:00:00.000Z. T. Martin vs O. Tarvet — O. Tarvet: model 67%, raw market 98%, gap -31%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T11:00:00.000Z. A. Dougaz vs M. Basic — A. Dougaz: model 50%, raw market 81%, gap -31%. Scheduled 2026-08-04T15:30:00.000Z. H. Haupt vs A. Freire Da Silva — A. Freire Da Silva: model 69%, raw market 99%, gap -30%. Scheduled 2026-08-04T14:00:00.000Z. M. Vasiliauskas vs F. Livet Novkirichka — F. Livet Novkirichka: model 62%, raw market 91%, gap -29%. Scheduled 2026-08-04T09:30:00.000Z.
Big gaps like these are interesting, but disagreement alone is not a bet — think of it as a prompt to look closer rather than a sure line to back. These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches.
A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.