Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-08-04T23:35:11.526Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
M. Paoletti vs M. Masiianskaia — M. Paoletti: model 68%, raw market 99%, gap -31%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T12:00:00.000Z.
J. Pegula vs M. Frech — J. Pegula: model 61%, raw market 92%, gap -31%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T18:30:00.000Z.
V. Manukyan vs D. Obradovic — D. Obradovic: model 66%, raw market 95%, gap -30%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T09:00:00.000Z.
A. Moro Canas vs A. Donski — A. Moro Canas: model 51%, raw market 80%, gap -29%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T10:00:00.000Z.
A. El Aouni vs D. Velikova — A. El Aouni: model 67%, raw market 96%, gap -29%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T10:30:00.000Z.
C. Giambelli vs V. Ahti — C. Giambelli: model 68%, raw market 97%, gap -29%. Scheduled 2026-08-05T12:30:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.