Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
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This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-08-02T05:36:12.135Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
Here are the largest gaps between our stored model probabilities and the raw market numbers: A. Martin vs A. Kobelt — A. Martin: model 70%, raw market 97%, gap -27%. A. Paszun vs W. Falkowska — W. Falkowska: model 70%, raw market 90%, gap -20%. A. Bojarski vs A. Dougaz — A. Dougaz: model 76%, raw market 95%, gap -19%.
More fixtures with big disagreements: L. Castagnola vs Y. Naydenov — L. Castagnola: model 77%, raw market 95%, gap -18%. I. Ivashka vs M. Kumar — I. Ivashka: model 80%, raw market 98%, gap -18%. P. Dev S D vs A. De Gabriele — P. Dev S D: model 74%, raw market 91%, gap -17%.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.