Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-08-02T23:35:21.254Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
D. Sakellaridis vs A. Dougaz — A. Dougaz: model 51%, raw market 83%, gap -33%. Scheduled 2026-08-03T12:30:00.000Z. R. Molleker vs T. Handel — R. Molleker: model 53%, raw market 79%, gap -26%. Scheduled 2026-08-03T11:00:00.000Z.
T. Monteiro vs T. Compagnucci — T. Monteiro: model 56%, raw market 80%, gap -24%. Scheduled 2026-08-03T12:30:00.000Z. M. Basic vs J. Cizek — M. Basic: model 66%, raw market 88%, gap -21%. Scheduled 2026-08-03T11:00:00.000Z.
I. Ivashka vs O. Weightman — I. Ivashka: model 62%, raw market 81%, gap -19%. Scheduled 2026-08-03T12:30:00.000Z. A. Paszun vs W. Falkowska — W. Falkowska: model 72%, raw market 90%, gap -18%. Scheduled 2026-08-03T12:30:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches.
A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.