Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-08-01T23:35:29.476Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
A. Bojarski vs A. Dougaz is the largest gap on our list: the model gives A. Dougaz 61% while the raw market implies 97%, a difference of -36%. That fixture is scheduled 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z.
I. Ivashka vs M. Kumar shows I. Ivashka at 66% from the model and 99% from the market, gap -33%, scheduled 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z. J. Choinski vs J. Mackenzie has J. Choinski 52% in the model and 83% in the market, gap -31%, scheduled 2026-08-02T13:00:00.000Z.
P. Dev S D vs A. De Gabriele lists P. Dev S D at 64% model versus 93% market, gap -30%, scheduled 2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z, while C. Zhao vs M. Linette shows M. Linette 67% model and 96% market, gap -29%, scheduled 2026-08-03T16:00:00.000Z. A. Paszun vs W. Falkowska completes the set with W. Falkowska 65% model and 93% market, gap -27%, scheduled 2026-08-03T10:00:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.