Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-07-31T05:35:45.086Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
T. Papamalamis vs A. Raynel — T. Papamalamis: model 51%, raw market 85%, gap -34%. Scheduled 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z. F. Jones vs A. Rame — F. Jones: model 63%, raw market 92%, gap -29%. Scheduled 2026-07-31T12:30:00.000Z.
D. Michalski vs M. Zielinski — D. Michalski: model 64%, raw market 90%, gap -26%. Scheduled 2026-07-31T15:00:00.000Z. M. Exsted vs O. Baris — O. Baris: model 60%, raw market 85%, gap -25%. Scheduled 2026-07-31T15:30:00.000Z. I. Ivanov vs P. Munkhammar — I. Ivanov: model 70%, raw market 94%, gap -25%. Scheduled 2026-07-31T12:00:00.000Z. T. Sickenberger vs Y. Kelm — Y. Kelm: model 70%, raw market 94%, gap -25%. Scheduled 2026-07-31T15:00:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.