Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-07-30T05:37:39.170Z.
Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
T. Papamalamis vs N. Karma — N. Karma: model 50%, raw market 24%, gap +26%. Scheduled 2026-07-30T11:00:00.000Z.
I. Sagmar vs E. Meri — I. Sagmar: model 39%, raw market 15%, gap +24%. Scheduled 2026-07-30T11:30:00.000Z.
M. Pizzigoni vs T. Pereira — M. Pizzigoni: model 29%, raw market 7%, gap +22%. Scheduled 2026-07-30T10:00:00.000Z.
A. V. Mediorreal vs D. Egorova — A. V. Mediorreal: model 30%, raw market 8%, gap +21%. Scheduled 2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z.
I. Barrera Aguirre vs C. Alves — I. Barrera Aguirre: model 31%, raw market 12%, gap +19%. Scheduled 2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z.
R. Da Costa vs K. Saitoh — R. Da Costa: model 36%, raw market 16%, gap +19%. Scheduled 2026-07-30T07:00:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.