Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-07-29T05:36:04.354Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
C. Pikkaart vs A. Geerlings Martinez — C. Pikkaart: model 57%, raw market 8%, gap +49%. Scheduled 2026-07-29T13:30:00.000Z.
N. Hanatani vs K. Tsygourova — N. Hanatani: model 57%, raw market 10%, gap +47%. Scheduled 2026-07-29T12:00:00.000Z.
N. Schunk vs C. Fontenel — C. Fontenel: model 57%, raw market 12%, gap +46%. Scheduled 2026-07-29T13:00:00.000Z. S. Kopp vs G. Sardo — G. Sardo: model 53%, raw market 9%, gap +44%. Scheduled 2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z. E. Adeshina vs Y. Zocco — Y. Zocco: model 53%, raw market 11%, gap +42%. Scheduled 2026-07-29T15:00:00.000Z. S. Yardley vs W. Ewald — S. Yardley: model 48%, raw market 7%, gap +42%. Scheduled 2026-07-29T16:30:00.000Z.
A big gap between model and raw market can mean genuine market mispricing, but it can also reflect missing data or model uncertainty; the normal value and confidence gates still apply. These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches, so treat the disagreement as a prompt for further checking rather than a standalone betting signal.