Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-07-28T23:35:57.436Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
B. Fitzpatrick vs L. Marionneau — B. Fitzpatrick: model 59%, raw market 7%, gap +52%. Scheduled 2026-07-29T10:30:00.000Z.
N. Hanatani vs K. Tsygourova — N. Hanatani: model 57%, raw market 8%, gap +49%. Scheduled 2026-07-29T12:00:00.000Z.
C. Rolland de Ravel vs T. Hohmann — T. Hohmann: model 57%, raw market 8%, gap +49%. Scheduled 2026-07-29T13:00:00.000Z.
J. Choinski vs A. Barrena — A. Barrena: model 74%, raw market 27%, gap +48%. Scheduled 2026-07-29T11:00:00.000Z.
A. Niyetkaliyev vs S. Mitsui — A. Niyetkaliyev: model 53%, raw market 7%, gap +46%. Scheduled 2026-07-29T11:30:00.000Z.
M. Dellavedova vs T. Takizawa — T. Takizawa: model 59%, raw market 14%, gap +45%. Scheduled 2026-07-29T02:00:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.