Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-07-27T23:36:06.995Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
M. Giron vs C. Hewitt — C. Hewitt: model 67%, raw market 10%, gap +56%. Scheduled 2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z.
T. Svajda vs J. Mensik — T. Svajda: model 68%, raw market 24%, gap +43%. Scheduled 2026-07-28T21:30:00.000Z.
O. Jasika vs D. Pham — D. Pham: model 72%, raw market 30%, gap +42%. Scheduled 2026-07-28T04:30:00.000Z.
S. Shin vs H. Chauhan — H. Chauhan: model 48%, raw market 6%, gap +42%. Scheduled 2026-07-28T05:00:00.000Z.
F. Diaz Acosta vs T. Compagnucci — T. Compagnucci: model 60%, raw market 19%, gap +41%. Scheduled 2026-07-28T12:30:00.000Z.
R. Taguchi vs D. Sumizawa — D. Sumizawa: model 58%, raw market 17%, gap +41%. Scheduled 2026-07-28T05:00:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.