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Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements

Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.

Engine evidence checked .

This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-07-27T23:36:06.995Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.

M. Giron vs C. Hewitt — C. Hewitt: model 67%, raw market 10%, gap +56%. Scheduled 2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z.

T. Svajda vs J. Mensik — T. Svajda: model 68%, raw market 24%, gap +43%. Scheduled 2026-07-28T21:30:00.000Z.

O. Jasika vs D. Pham — D. Pham: model 72%, raw market 30%, gap +42%. Scheduled 2026-07-28T04:30:00.000Z.

S. Shin vs H. Chauhan — H. Chauhan: model 48%, raw market 6%, gap +42%. Scheduled 2026-07-28T05:00:00.000Z.

F. Diaz Acosta vs T. Compagnucci — T. Compagnucci: model 60%, raw market 19%, gap +41%. Scheduled 2026-07-28T12:30:00.000Z.

R. Taguchi vs D. Sumizawa — D. Sumizawa: model 58%, raw market 17%, gap +41%. Scheduled 2026-07-28T05:00:00.000Z.

These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.

Sources

OddsPadi public prediction ledgerChecked 2026-07-27OddsPadi current predictionsChecked 2026-07-27