Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-07-26T23:37:36.215Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
A. Mannarino vs L. Tien — A. Mannarino: model 84%, raw market 27%, gap +57%. Scheduled 2026-07-27T16:00:00.000Z. B. Bonzi vs B. Bicknell — B. Bicknell: model 72%, raw market 17%, gap +55%. Scheduled 2026-07-27T19:00:00.000Z. M. Poljicak vs J. Kovalik — J. Kovalik: model 90%, raw market 43%, gap +47%. Scheduled 2026-07-27T10:00:00.000Z.
K. Rice vs P. Llamas Ruiz — K. Rice: model 69%, raw market 24%, gap +45%. Scheduled 2026-07-27T19:00:00.000Z. A. Martin vs A. Beckley — A. Beckley: model 73%, raw market 28%, gap +45%. Scheduled 2026-07-27T12:00:00.000Z. L. Samson vs A. Breaz — A. Breaz: model 55%, raw market 11%, gap +45%. Scheduled 2026-07-28T10:00:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.