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Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements

Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.

Engine evidence checked .

This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-07-23T05:36:30.144Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.

B. Djuric vs M. Milosavljevic — M. Milosavljevic: model 71%, raw market 12%, gap +59%. Scheduled 2026-07-23T12:30:00.000Z.

A. Martin vs A. Wagner — A. Wagner: model 69%, raw market 14%, gap +55%. Scheduled 2026-07-23T13:30:00.000Z.

J. Faria vs G. Bueno — G. Bueno: model 71%, raw market 18%, gap +53%. Scheduled 2026-07-23T15:00:00.000Z.

D. Egorova vs A. Candiotto — A. Candiotto: model 61%, raw market 14%, gap +47%. Scheduled 2026-07-23T19:00:00.000Z.

L. Havlickova vs B. Krejcikova — L. Havlickova: model 60%, raw market 14%, gap +46%. Scheduled 2026-07-23T15:30:00.000Z.

A. Moro Canas vs I. Marrero Curbelo — I. Marrero Curbelo: model 72%, raw market 27%, gap +46%. Scheduled 2026-07-23T12:30:00.000Z.

These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.

Sources

OddsPadi public prediction ledgerChecked 2026-07-23OddsPadi current predictionsChecked 2026-07-23
Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements | OddsPadi