Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-07-22T17:36:20.136Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
A. Martin vs A. Wagner — A. Wagner: model 69%, raw market 14%, gap +55%. Scheduled 2026-07-23T10:00:00.000Z.
A. Bhopal vs A. Grubor — A. Bhopal: model 59%, raw market 4%, gap +54%. Scheduled 2026-07-22T20:35:00.000Z.
S. Jara vs A. Voloshchuk — S. Jara: model 59%, raw market 7%, gap +52%. Scheduled 2026-07-22T20:30:00.000Z.
J. Faria vs G. Bueno — G. Bueno: model 71%, raw market 20%, gap +51%. Scheduled 2026-07-23T12:00:00.000Z.
J. Kym vs P. Henning — P. Henning: model 71%, raw market 20%, gap +51%. Scheduled 2026-07-22T20:00:00.000Z.
C. Romero vs L. Perez Alarcon — C. Romero: model 55%, raw market 4%, gap +50%. Scheduled 2026-07-22T20:30:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.