Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-07-21T23:36:44.696Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
H. Satara vs O. Jasika — H. Satara: model 71%, raw market 12%, gap +59%. Scheduled 2026-07-22T02:00:00.000Z. C. Pikkaart vs N. Radovanovic — C. Pikkaart: model 56%, raw market 6%, gap +50%. Scheduled 2026-07-22T10:30:00.000Z.
A. Bhopal vs A. Grubor — A. Bhopal: model 59%, raw market 13%, gap +45%. Scheduled 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z. R. Nakamura vs K. Saitoh — R. Nakamura: model 52%, raw market 7%, gap +45%. Scheduled 2026-07-22T07:30:00.000Z. H. Casanova vs J. Garcia Mestre — J. Garcia Mestre: model 55%, raw market 11%, gap +44%. Scheduled 2026-07-22T15:30:00.000Z. D. Obradovic vs J. Bjelobrk — J. Bjelobrk: model 59%, raw market 15%, gap +44%. Scheduled 2026-07-22T11:00:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.