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Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements

Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.

Engine evidence checked .

This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-07-19T11:35:54.421Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.

Seattle Storm vs Minnesota Lynx — Seattle Storm: model 58%, raw market 20%, gap +38%. Scheduled 2026-07-21T02:00:00.000Z. Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces — Toronto Tempo: model 53%, raw market 22%, gap +31%. Scheduled 2026-07-21T00:00:00.000Z. Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors — Golden State Warriors: model 70%, raw market 43%, gap +26%. Scheduled 2026-07-20T01:00:00.000Z.

Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky — Chicago Sky: model 40%, raw market 21%, gap +20%. Scheduled 2026-07-19T20:00:00.000Z. Dallas Wings vs Los Angeles Sparks — Los Angeles Sparks: model 37%, raw market 21%, gap +16%. Scheduled 2026-07-19T17:00:00.000Z. Mjallby AIF vs Lincoln Red Imps FC — Lincoln Red Imps FC: model 21%, raw market 6%, gap +15%. Scheduled 2026-07-21T16:00:00.000Z.

These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.

Sources

OddsPadi public prediction ledgerChecked 2026-07-19OddsPadi current predictionsChecked 2026-07-19