Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements
Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.
Engine evidence checked .
This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-07-17T02:11:35.388Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.
Arsenal vs Coventry — home: model 44%, raw market 88%, gap -44%. Scheduled 2026-08-21T19:00:00.000Z.
These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply.