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Model vs market: biggest stored disagreements

Where upcoming stored model probabilities differ most from the raw implied bookmaker price—and why disagreement alone is not a bet.

Engine evidence checked .

This comparison uses the latest stored rows available at 2026-07-14T05:35:24.052Z. Raw implied probabilities are calculated as one divided by decimal odds and do not remove bookmaker margin.

Arsenal vs Coventry — home: model 44%, raw market 88%, gap -44%. Scheduled 2026-08-21T19:00:00.000Z.

These are upcoming stored fixtures, not necessarily today's matches. Treat the list as a snapshot of stored model outputs versus the current raw implied prices.

A large disagreement can reflect missing data or model uncertainty, so the normal value and confidence gates still apply. Disagreement alone is not a bet.

Sources

OddsPadi public prediction ledgerChecked 2026-07-14OddsPadi current predictionsChecked 2026-07-14